Mixed Messages: ETFs Lose Millions While Bitcoin and Ether Surge – Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) prices have recovered a notable portion of last week’s losses, suggesting a “buy the dip” trend, yet recent ETF flows tell a different story.

On Monday, the nine spot ether ETFs recorded total net outflows of $465 million—the largest on record—following Friday’s $152 million drawdown, according to RialCenter. Bitcoin ETFs also experienced considerable outflows, shedding $333 million after Friday’s $812 million, indicating that institutional capital may not be as optimistic as the spot market.

Meanwhile, long-term bullishness in BTC options has diminished as concerns about renewed U.S. inflation and a slowing labor market impact investors’ risk appetite.

Conversely, some analysts maintain a mostly positive outlook for the market, anticipating Fed interest-rate cuts.

“Despite the short-term volatility, structural data still suggests the U.S. is experiencing a growth slowdown rather than a full-blown recession,” said Chloe Zheng, a research analyst at HTX. “Household debt is low relative to income, credit stress is contained, and business lending growth is ongoing. This combination of easing inflation expectations and softening labor data typically precedes monetary easing, placing risk assets like BTC in a high-volatility, liquidity-sensitive environment.”

Data from the CME’s FedWatch tool shows that traders are expecting three rate cuts by the January 2026 meeting, implying the Fed is likely to ease borrowing costs in three out of the next four meetings.

According to Paul Howard, a senior director at crypto market-making firm Wincent, new highs in the crypto market hinge on Fed actions.

“The next significant macro news will likely come from U.S. rate changes, potentially as early as September,” Howard stated. “If that occurs, we can anticipate prices soaring beyond current all-time highs as cheap money seeks yield. I perceive BTC and major alts will then see robust outperformance in Q4.”

In the broader market, on-chain stablecoin volume reached a record high of over $1.5 trillion in July, according to analytics firm Sentora. Uniswap v4, which launched at the end of January, has exceeded $100 million in trading volume, according to data tracked by 21Shares.

In traditional markets, U.S. stock futures traded flat to positive, suggesting a muted open following Monday’s 1.3% gain. The dollar index slightly increased near 99.00, while gold fell to $3,360 per ounce, as concerns in the freight market emerged, signaling potential economic warnings. Stay vigilant!

What to Watch

• Crypto
  • Aug. 5, 1:30 p.m.: Stellar Development Foundation (SDF) will host an AMA session on Reddit. CEO Denelle Dixon, Chief Marketing Officer Jason Karsh, and Chief Growth Officer José Fernández da Ponte will respond to questions.
  • Aug. 7, 10 a.m.: Circle will host a webinar, “The GENIUS Act Era Begins,” featuring Dante Disparte and Corey Then. The session will explore the first U.S. federal payment stablecoin framework and its implications for crypto innovation and regulation.
  • Aug. 15: Record date for the next FTX distribution to holders of allowed claims who meet pre-distribution requirements.
  • Aug. 18: Coinbase Derivatives will launch nano SOL and nano XRP perpetual-style futures.
• Macro
  • Aug. 5, 10 a.m.: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases July U.S. services sector data.
    • Services PMI Est. 51.5 vs. Prev. 50.8
  • Aug. 5, 2 p.m.: Uruguay’s National Institute of Statistics releases July inflation data.
    • Annual Inflation Rate Prev. 4.59%
  • Aug. 6, 12:01 a.m.: U.S. tariff of 50% on most Brazilian imports takes effect.
  • Aug. 6, 2 p.m.: Fed Governor Lisa D. Cook will deliver a speech titled “U.S. and Global Economy.”
  • Aug. 7, 12:01 a.m.: New U.S. reciprocal tariffs outlined in President Trump’s July 31 executive order become effective.
  • Aug. 7, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases July consumer price inflation data.
    • Core Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.39%
    • Core Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 4.24%
    • Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.28%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 4.32%
  • Aug. 7, 3 p.m.: Mexico’s central bank announces its monetary policy decision.
    • Overnight Interbank Target Rate Est. 7.75% vs. Prev. 8%
  • Aug. 8: Federal Reserve Governor Adriana D. Kugler’s resignation becomes effective.
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • Aug. 5: Galaxy Digital, pre-market, $0.19
  • Aug. 7: Block, post-market, $0.67
  • Aug. 7: CleanSpark, post-market, $0.19
  • Aug. 7: Coincheck Group, post-market
  • Aug. 7: Cipher Mining, pre-market
  • Aug. 7: Hut 8, pre-market, -$0.08
  • Aug. 8: TeraWulf, pre-market, -$0.06
  • Aug. 11: Exodus Movement, post-market
  • Aug. 12: Bitfarms, pre-market
  • Aug. 12: Fold Holdings, post-market
  • Aug. 14 (TBC): Core Scientific, post-market
  • Aug. 15: BitFuFu, pre-market
  • Aug. 18: Bitdeer Technologies Group, pre-market
  • Aug. 27: NVIDIA, post-market, $1.00

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • Compound DAO is voting to select its next Security Service Provider. Delegates are choosing between ChainSecurity, Certora, and Cyfrin. Voting ends Aug. 5.
  • Balancer DAO is voting on creating “Balancer Business,” a for-profit subsidiary of Balancer OpCo Ltd. Voting ends Aug. 5.
  • Arbitrum DAO is voting to renew its partnership with Entropy Advisors for two more years. Voting ends Aug. 7.
  • BendDAO is voting on a plan to stabilize BEND by burning 50% of treasury tokens and launching monthly buybacks. Voting ends Aug. 10.
  • Aug. 5, 1:30 p.m.: Stellar Development Foundation’s CEO, CMO, and Head of Strategy & Partnerships to participate in an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session on Reddit.
  • Aug. 7, 12 p.m.: Celo to host a governance call.
• Unlocks
  • Aug. 9: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.3% of its circulating supply worth $12.40 million.
  • Aug. 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.73% of its circulating supply worth $48.07 million.
  • Aug. 15: Avalanche (AVAX) to unlock 0.39% of its circulating supply worth $37.45 million.
  • Aug. 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.53% of its circulating supply worth $14.95 million.
  • Aug. 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 0.96% of its circulating supply worth $16.42 million.
  • Aug. 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 1.8% of its circulating supply worth $36.35 million.
  • Aug. 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.64% of its circulating supply worth $91.6 million.
• Token Launches
  • Aug. 5: Keeta (KTA) to be listed on Kraken.
  • Aug. 5: USDC, tron (TRX), ondo (ONDO), chainlink (LINK), cardano (ADA), and polkadot (DOT) to be listed on Arkham Exchange.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through Aug. 31.

• Day 2 of 3: The Science of Blockchain Conference 2025 (Berkeley, California)
• Aug. 6-7: Blockchain Rio 2025 (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)
• Aug. 6-10: Rare EVO (Las Vegas)
• Aug. 7-8: bitcoin++ (Riga, Latvia)
• Aug. 9-10: Baltic Honeybadger 2025 (Riga, Latvia)
• Aug. 9-10: Conviction 2025 (Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam)
• Aug. 11: Paraguay Blockchain Summit 2025 (Asuncion)
• Aug. 11-13: AIBB 2025 (Istanbul)
• Aug. 11-17: Ethereum NYC (New York)
• Aug. 13-14: CryptoWinter ‘25 (Queenstown, New Zealand)
• Aug. 15: Bitcoin Educators Unconference (Vancouver)
• Aug. 17-21: Crypto 2025 (Santa Barbara, California)
• Aug. 18-21: Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2025 (Jackson Hole, Wyoming)
• Aug. 21-22: Coinfest Asia 2025 (Bali, Indonesia)
• Aug. 25-25: WebX 2025 (Tokyo)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• Hyperliquid achieved its best month ever, with $320 billion in trading volume in July—an increase of 47% driven by ether and altcoin activity.
• The DEX also surpassed $15 billion in total open interest for the first time, with ETH open interest nearly doubling month-on-month.
• Hyperliquid consistently generated over $4 million in daily fees during this period, reflecting strong trader engagement.
• With $597 million in total value locked, the exchange now captures nearly 12% of Binance’s derivatives market share, boosted by whale activity and high-leverage trades.
• The platform’s HYPE token fell to $38.54 after nearing $50 during its rally.
• HYPE’s open interest decreased to a one-month low at $1.46 billion, with 70% of traders long, raising the chances of a liquidation flush.
• Price discovery has shifted to external exchanges, limiting the reflexive momentum that drove HYPE’s early gains.

Derivatives Positioning

• BTC’s futures open interest decreased by over 1%, contrasting with increased participation in futures tied to other major tokens like ether and XRP.
• Funding rates are averaging 5%-10% annually for most major coins, indicating bullish market positioning.
• On Deribit, long-term BTC calls are now trading at par with puts, reflecting a shift to a bullish-to-neutral sentiment. Recent flows featured calendar spreads in bitcoin and short straddles in Aug. 8 expiry ETH options.

Market Movements

• BTC is unchanged at $114,615.76 (24hrs: 0.18%)
• ETH is down 0.87% at $3,661.62 (24hrs: 2.9%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 3.14% at 3,839 (24hrs: +1.95%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 6 bps at 2.857%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0189% (20.69% annualized) on KuCoin

• DXY is up 0.18% at 98.97
• Gold futures are down 0.39% at $3,413.10
• Silver futures are up 0.13% at $37.38
• Nikkei 225 closed up 0.64% at 40,549.54
• Hang Seng closed up 0.68% at 24,902.53
• FTSE is up 0.32% at 9,157.57
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.24% at 5,254.78
• DJIA closed up 1.34% at 44,173.64
• S&P 500 closed up 1.47% at 6,329.94
• Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.95% at 21,053.58
• S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.88% at 27,020.43
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.72% at 2,572.27
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 1.6 bps at 4.214%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.17% at 6,366.50
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.23% at 23,349.00
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is up 0.11% at 44,351.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 61.6% (0.27%)
• Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03192 (-1.24%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 926 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $56.83
• Total Fees: 3.33 BTC / $382,733
• CME Futures Open Interest: 136,145 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 34 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 9.61%

Technical Analysis

• The XRP/ETH ratio has formed a head-and-shoulders pattern on the daily chart.
• A break below the horizontal support line would confirm a bearish trend reversal, signaling ether to outperform XRP.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $389.24 (+6.17%), -0.42% at $387.59 pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $318.17 (+1.11%), unchanged pre-market.
• Circle (CRCL): closed at $164.82 (-1.95%), -1.65% at $162.18.
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $28.89 (+7.48%), +5.23% at $30.40.
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $16.04 (+3.48%), -0.19% at $16.01
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $11.42 (+3.54%), unchanged.
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $13.65 (+7.91%), +0.81% at $13.76.
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.62 (+1.72%), +0.19% at $10.64.
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $24.83 (+6.02%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $35.37 (+2.64%), unchanged.
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $29.57 (+4.19%), unchanged.
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $19.14 (+11.67%), +2.61% at $19.64.

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$323.5 million
• Cumulative net flows: $53.83 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$465.1 million
• Cumulative net flows: $9.04 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~5.69 million

Source: RialCenter

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• The U.S.-listed ether ETFs recorded an unprecedented outflow of $465 million on Monday.
• The lack of ETF participation raises concerns about the sustainability of ether’s price recovery since Sunday.

While You Were Sleeping

• Base Network Suffers 1st Downtime Since 2023, Halts Operations for 29 Minutes: A technical fault was identified and resolved quickly. The outage stands out given Base’s increasing role in the Ethereum layer-2 ecosystem.
• Bitcoin’s Long-Term Bullishness Evaporates From Options Market as Inflation Concern Rises: Indicators show a shift from bullish to neutral as analysts caution that U.S. inflation data may complicate potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
• Trump’s BLS Firing Tests Wall Street’s Reliance on Government Data: Investors are skeptical of U.S. inflation and jobs data after Trump’s firing of a key official.
• A Year Ago Today, Bitcoin Hit $49K on Yen Carry Trade Unwind, Now It’s Up 130%: Bitcoin rebounded alongside equities and gold over the past year, with long-term holders increasing their share of supply.
• Brazil’s Supreme Court Places Bolsonaro Under House Arrest: The judge cited contempt for judicial decisions as the reason for the order, limiting Bolsonaro’s communication and visits.
• Gold Hovers Near Two-Week High as Weak U.S. Jobs Data Raises Rate-Cut Bets: Analysts indicated that gold’s recent gains reflect interest-rate cut expectations.

In the Ether