This is a daily analysis of top tokens with CME futures by RialCenter analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.
Bitcoin: Correction Risks Mount
Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade directionless near $120,000 as data from Deribit-listed options shows significant positive dealer gamma at the $120,000 and $120,500 strikes. When dealers have positive gamma exposure, they buy low and sell high to rebalance their net exposure to neutral, inadvertently reducing volatility.
The critical support area between $116,000 and $117,000, validated by both price charts and on-chain activity, if breached, may lead to a retest of the May high just below $112,000. Conversely, a strong move above $120,000 is likely to bring record highs.
That said, the case for an extended pullback appears strong, as the minuscule 0.12% green bar, confirmed on July 22 on the three-line break chart, indicates uptrend exhaustion.
- AI’s Take: On a three-line break chart, where each bar signals a confirmed trend move, the small 0.12% green bar on July 22 serves as a significant warning. It indicates that the strong uptrend is experiencing severe exhaustion of buying momentum, suggesting a potential imminent consolidation or reversal despite the overall bullish trend.
- Resistance: $120,000, $123,181.
- Support: $116,000-$117,000, $114,700, $111,965.
Ether: Hits 7-Month High
Ether (ETH) has risen nearly 2% in the past 24 hours, reaching a seven-month high of $3,937 at one point, invalidating last week’s indecisive Doji signal.
However, the momentum was short-lived, as prices quickly pulled back to $3,880, validating the 14-day RSI, which did not confirm the new multi-month high in prices, hinting at potential bearish divergence and an impending correction. The daily chart MACD histogram also suggests a bearish cross, with on-chain fundamentals like Ethereum’s native fees and revenue failing to keep pace with the rising prices.
The higher low of $3,510 established on Thursday remains key support; below this, the risk of an extended slide would increase. On the upside, the $3,900-$4,100 range is the key resistance zone from 2024.
- AI’s Take: The MACD is indicating an impending negative cross, signaling weakening bullish momentum, while the RSI shows bearish divergence, failing to confirm new price highs. These indicators collectively point to a loss of upward thrust, increasing downside risk.
- Resistance: $4,000, $4,100, $4,382.
- Support: $3,770 (daily low), $3,510, $3,000.
XRP: Retreats from Support-Turned-Resistance
XRP (XRP) has reversed gains from the Asian session, pulling back from near the former support-turned-resistance level at $3.35. The pullback appears valid, as the hourly chart’s RSI has violated the bullish trendline, and the MACD histogram has crossed below zero, signaling a bearish momentum shift.
This structure favors a retest of the July 24 low of $2.96, below which the focus would shift to the May high of $2.65.
The tweezer top pattern on the weekly chart, marked by consecutive candlesticks with highs at $3.65, also indicates a bearish momentum shift.
- AI’s Take: XRP’s impressive rally has been capped by a significant “tweezer top” candlestick pattern, a strong bearish reversal signal that warns of potential downside from its multi-year highs.
- Resistance: $3.35, $3.65, $4.00.
- Support: $2.96, $2.65, $2.44 (the 200-day SMA).
Solana: Not Out of the Woods Yet
SOL’s (SOL) price has recovered to trade above the hourly chart Ichimoku cloud, establishing higher lows to suggest renewed upward momentum and a potential retest of $200, the upper end of the ascending channel.
Still, we are not out of the woods yet, as the tweezer top formation at $205-$206 on the daily chart remains valid. Thus, a move below $184, the higher low, cannot be ruled out and is likely to lead to an accelerated pullback to the 200-day SMA at $163.
- AI’s Take: Solana’s impressive July rally has resulted in a “Tweezer Top” candlestick pattern at its peak, indicating a strong bearish reversal, suggesting significant selling pressure has entered the market.
- Resistance: $205-$206, $218, $252.
- Support: $184, $163, $126.
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