Bitcoin Dips as Rate Cut Expectations Dwindle: Crypto Update for the Americas

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The wind appears to be leaving the crypto market. Bitcoin (BTC) declined 3% in the last 24 hours, falling below $115,000, yet remains one of the better performers among the major cryptocurrencies.

The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index fell 6%, with ether (ETH) down 5.7% after experiencing its most robust monthly increase in three years, and XRP (XRP) dropping over 7%.

This drop coincides with some of President Trump’s tariffs beginning to take effect, with more scheduled for August 7. These tariffs range from 10% to 41% on imports from significant trading partners, including Canada, the European Union, and Japan.

This situation contributed to Asian equity markets experiencing their worst week since April, while the U.S. dollar rallied, pushing the dollar index above 100 for the first time since May.

The tariffs also increased the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the core PCE, to 2.8% year-over-year in June. This rise has dampened expectations for a rate cut in September. Polymarket traders adjusted their outlook from a perceived 56% chance of a rate cut to 38%. The CME’s FedWatch tool indicates a 39% probability.

“For crypto, looser financial conditions would be a major tailwind,” said 21Shares strategist Matt Mena in a statement.

Today’s nonfarm payrolls data could be significant, with expectations that the U.S. economy added 110,000 jobs last month.

Options traders are already seeking protection against further declines.

“There is an uptick in short-term bearish positioning on BTC with capped upside strategies,” remarked Jake Ostrovskis, an OTC trader at Wintermute. “ETH options for late August show quite a different positioning, favoring a more neutral to outright bullish stance.”

If economic data suggests higher rates will persist, traders may opt for assets that perform well under tighter conditions. A stronger dollar and increased interest rates could shift investor interest toward yield-bearing stablecoins or transparent ETH-based vaults, especially following the GENIUS Act’s passage into law. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto
  • Aug. 1: The Helium Network (HNT), now on Solana, undergoes a halving event, reducing annual token issuance to 7.5 million HNT.
  • Aug. 1: Hong Kong’s Stablecoins Ordinance takes effect, introducing a licensing system to regulate stablecoin activities.
  • Aug. 1: New Bretton Woods Labs will launch BTCD, claimed to be the first fully bitcoin-backed stablecoin, on the Elastos mainnet.
  • Aug. 4: Solana Mobile will begin worldwide shipping of its Seeker Web3 mobile device.
  • Aug. 15: Record date for the next FTX distribution to holders of eligible claims meeting pre-distribution requirements.
  • Aug. 18: Coinbase Derivatives will launch nano SOL and nano XRP U.S. perpetual-style futures.
• Macro
  • Aug. 1, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release July employment data.
    • Non-Farm Payrolls Est. 110K vs. Prev. 147K
    • Unemployment Rate Est. 4.2% vs. Prev. 4.1%
    • Government Payrolls Prev. 73K
    • Manufacturing Payrolls Est. -3K vs. Prev. -7K
  • Aug. 1, 9 a.m.: S&P Global releases July manufacturing and services data for Brazil.
    • Manufacturing PMI Prev. 48.3
  • Aug. 1, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global releases July manufacturing and services data for Canada.
    • Manufacturing PMI Prev. 45.6
  • Aug. 1, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (final) July manufacturing and services data for the U.S.
    • Manufacturing PMI Est. 49.5 vs. Prev. 52.9
  • Aug. 1, 10 a.m.: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release July U.S. services sector data.
    • Manufacturing PMI Est. 49.5 vs. Prev. 49
  • Aug. 1, 10 a.m.: The University of Michigan will release (final) July U.S. consumer sentiment data.
    • Michigan Consumer Sentiment Est. 62 vs. Prev. 60.7
  • Aug. 1, 11 a.m.: S&P Global releases July manufacturing and services data for Mexico.
    • Manufacturing PMI Prev. 46.3
  • Aug. 1 p.m.: Peru’s National Institute of Statistics and Informatics releases July consumer price inflation data.
    • Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.13%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 1.69%
  • Aug. 6, 12:01 a.m.: A 50% U.S. tariff on most Brazilian imports goes into effect.
  • Aug. 7, 12:01 a.m.: U.S. reciprocal tariffs outlined in a recent executive order become effective for various trading partners who did not secure deals by the deadline. These tariffs range from 15% to 41%, depending on the country.
• Earnings (Estimates based on RialCenter data)
  • Aug. 4: Semler Scientific (SMLR), post-market, -$0.22
  • Aug. 5: Galaxy Digital (GLXY), pre-market, $0.19
  • Aug. 7: Block (XYZ), post-market, $0.67
  • Aug. 7: Cipher Mining (CIFR), pre-market
  • Aug. 7: CleanSpark (CLSK), post-market, $0.19
  • Aug. 7: Coincheck (CNCK), post-market
  • Aug. 7: Hut 8 (HUT), pre-market, -$0.08
  • Aug. 8: TeraWulf (WULF), pre-market, -$0.06
  • Aug. 11: Exodus Movement (EXOD), post-market
  • Aug. 12: Bitfarms (BITF), pre-market
  • Aug. 12: Fold Holdings (FLD), post-market
  • Aug. 27: NVIDIA (NVDA), post-market, $1.00

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • NEAR Protocol is voting on potentially reducing NEAR’s inflation from 5% to 2.5%. Approval by two-thirds of validators is needed for implementation by late Q3. Voting ends Aug. 1.
  • Venus DAO is voting on a 12-month renewal with Chaos Labs for BNB Chain deployment at a cost of $400,000, focusing on expanding the Risk Oracle system. Voting ends Aug. 1.
  • Compound DAO is voting to select its next Security Service Provider (SSP), choosing between ChainSecurity, Certora, and Cyfrin. Voting ends Aug. 5.
• Unlocks
  • Aug. 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.64% of its circulating supply worth $23.36 million.
  • Aug. 9: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.3% of its circulating supply worth $12.26 million.
  • Aug. 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.73% of its circulating supply worth $47.95 million.
  • Aug. 15: Avalanche (AVAX) to unlock 0.39% of its circulating supply worth $36.52 million.
  • Aug. 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.53% of its circulating supply worth $14.42 million.
  • Aug. 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 0.96% of its circulating supply worth $15.78 million.
• Token Launches
  • Aug. 5: Keeta (KTA) to be listed on Kraken.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event in Washington on Sept. 10, allowing general counsels, compliance officers, and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through Aug. 31.

• Aug. 6-7: Blockchain.Rio 2025 (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)
• Aug. 6-10: Rare EVO (Las Vegas)
• Aug. 7-8: bitcoin++ (Riga, Latvia)
• Aug. 9-10: Baltic Honeybadger 2025 (Riga, Latvia)
• Aug. 9-10: Conviction 2025 (Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam)
• Aug. 11: Paraguay Blockchain Summit 2025 (Asuncion)
• Aug. 11-13: AIBB 2025 (Istanbul)
• Aug. 11-17: Ethereum NYC (New York)
• Aug. 13-14: CryptoWinter ‘25 (Queenstown, New Zealand)
• Aug. 21-22: Coinfest Asia 2025 (Bali, Indonesia)

Token Talk

By Francisco Rodrigues

• The non-fungible token (NFT) market is recovering, with CryptoPunks, the leading collection, seeing its floor price hit a three-year high, according to RialCenter.
• Total NFT market capitalization has nearly doubled to $6.4 billion in just a month, according to RialCenter data.
• The rally was led by CryptoPunks, which increased by 33.3%. Other collections, such as the Pudgy Penguins, contributed to this growth.
• CryptoPunks’ surge now accounts for nearly 30% of the total market capitalization of the NFT sector, with a price of 52 ETH, the highest in over a year.

Derivatives Positioning

• The number of open contracts in CME bitcoin standard futures has decreased to 27,699, representing 138,495 BTC, the lowest level since April.
• Capital flight may indicate institutions favoring spot ETFs over futures or traders reducing exposure as the dollar’s rally accelerates.
• Open interest in ether futures has dropped to 32,903 contracts from a recent high of 41,636, with each ether contract sized at 50 ETH.
• BTC and ETH open interest remains high near record levels in offshore perpetual futures, with funding rates falling to under 5%, suggesting weakening bullish sentiment.
• On Deribit, market sentiment has shifted against ether, with premiums for downside insurance being higher than for bitcoin.

Market Movements

• BTC is down 1.32% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $114,962.47 (24hrs: -2.92%)
• ETH is down 3.09% at $3,619.49 (24hrs: -5.94%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 3.26% at 3,764.26 (24hrs: -6.05%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate remains unchanged at 2.94%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0026% (2.8448% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is up 0.25% at 100.22
• Gold futures are unchanged at $3,345.70
• Silver futures are down 0.67% at $36.47
• Nikkei 225 closed down 0.66% at 40,799.60
• Hang Seng closed down 1.07% at 24,507.81
• FTSE is down 0.40% at 9,096.56
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.36% at 5,319.92
• DJIA closed on Thursday down 0.74% at 44,130.98
• S&P 500 closed down 0.37% at 6,339.39
• Nasdaq Composite closed unchanged at 21,122.45
• S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.40% at 27,259.78
• S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.71% at 2,563.84
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 3.6 bps at 4.396%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.94% at 6,314.25
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 1.03% at 23,125.00
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is down 0.91% at 43,900.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 61.98% (0.41%)
• Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03150 (-1.38%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 904 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $57.21
• Total Fees: 3.96 BTC / $468,378
• CME Futures Open Interest: 138,495 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 34.8 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 9.85%

Technical Analysis

• The ether-bitcoin ratio’s daily chart indicates a bearish divergence of the RSI, with the indicator showing a lower high while price rises, suggesting weakening bullish momentum.
• This implies ether could underperform bitcoin in the coming days.
• The MACD histogram has turned negative as well.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $401.86 (+1.73%), down 4.2% at $385 in pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $377.76 (+0.07%), down 11.15% at $335.65
• Circle (CRCL): closed at $183.52 (-3.66%), down 5.19% at $174
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $28.41 (-1.68%), down 7.97% at $26.15
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $16.08 (-2.84%), down 3.61% at $15.5
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.41 (-0.81%), down 8.05% at $12.33
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $13.54 (+3.72%), down 4.21% at $12.97
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $11.37 (-0.44%), down 3.25% at $11
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $25.26 (+2.23%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $35.85 (-0.17%), down 0.7% at $35.60
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $30.84 (+6.05%), down 1.85% at $30.27
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $18.81 (-3.83%), down 6.11% at $17.66

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$114.8 million
• Cumulative net flows: $54.97 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.3 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: $17 million
• Cumulative net flows: $9.66 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~5.73 million

Source: RialCenter

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• The total amount of USDT transferred on-chain has risen to $52.9 billion, the highest since early 2022.
• This indicates a slow but steady recovery in stablecoin velocity and market activity, according to RialCenter.
• The peak of the 2021 crypto bull market was characterized by sharp increases in USDT velocity.

While You Were Sleeping

• Donald Trump Reignites Global Trade War With Sweeping Tariff Regime (Financial Times): A 35% tariff on Canadian non-USMCA goods starts Aug. 1, while broader tariffs announced in Thursday’s executive order will take effect on Aug. 7.
• Bitcoin, Ether Start August on a Shaky Note as Dollar Index Tops 100; Yen Hits 4-Month Low Ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls (CoinDesk): Major cryptocurrencies experienced volatile trading as a stronger dollar resulted from new tariffs.
• Are Traders Done With Ether? Options Market Now Prices Higher Risk for ETH Than BTC (CoinDesk): Data reveals that it now costs more to hedge ether than bitcoin, reflecting a sentiment shift.
• El Salvador Scraps Presidential Term Limits, Opening Door for Another Bukele Term (Reuters): A bill allowing for indefinite re-election passed in Congress.
• Goldman Urges Caution as Global Credit Spreads Hit 2007 Lows (Bloomberg): Strategists warn that investors may be overlooking risks despite apparent market confidence.
• Bitcoin Holders Can Now Earn Automated Yield Via $2B Solv Protocol (CoinDesk): Solv’s BTC+ vault offers returns on bitcoin through DeFi lending.

In the Ether