Good Morning, Asia. Here's what's making news in the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see RialCenter’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
The crypto market is showing warning signs. Institutions are pulling back as they take profits, ETF inflows are plummeting, and Bitcoin (BTC) appears rangebound as it struggles to break through $120K.
Market observers are now focusing on Ether (ETH) and whether it will bring capital back into the fold.
After BTC’s brief touch of all-time highs, the market has entered a consolidation phase. Data from Glassnode shows institutional ETF inflows have sharply decreased, falling 80% this week to just $496 million, alongside a decline in ETF trading volume to $18.7 billion.
Bitcoin’s spot market sentiment is also declining, with the Relative Strength Index retreating sharply, indicating that the asset is moving away from overbought levels. These signals suggest a clear institutional withdrawal, raising concerns about potential further downside.
QCP Capital notes similar tensions in derivatives.
Funding rates for perpetual futures remain above 15%, suggesting aggressive long positioning, but recent flows indicate that large players are taking profits and hedging against downside risks.
A significant ETH call fly was unwound, according to QCP’s note, while large BTC puts were purchased for protection, indicating activity that does not support a fresh upward trend.
Still, QCP remains optimistic.
“Momentum, narrative strength, and macro tailwinds are still on our side,” it stated in a recent update. “Hodlers and institutions will likely buy the dip, as we saw on Friday.”
On the other hand, Enflux is not sounding alarms.
The market maker perceives the current climate as a period of consolidation, not capitulation. Spot and perp markets are stable, not declining significantly.
“The evolution of institutional ETH flows, and whether capital re-engages with altcoins, will likely guide the next leg of market structure,” the firm noted.
ETH finds itself between these viewpoints. If institutions return, capital could cycle back into ETH, reigniting the altcoin cycle. If not, this consolidation could deteriorate into something worse.
For now, the rally has paused, and the path ahead rests on Ethereum. Glassnode sees fragility, Enflux sees neutrality, and QCP sees hedged optimism. However, the next breakout or breakdown will likely be influenced by how ETH flows develop.
Market Movements
BTC: Bitcoin is trading at $118K, consolidating between channel support at $114K and resistance near the all-time high of $123K, as a liquidity sweep below $116K and renewed supply from a reactivated whale wallet stalled bullish momentum, according to RialCenter’s market insights.
ETH: Ethereum is trading at $3,783, maintaining a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern targeting $4,300, but neutral funding rates near multi-year resistance suggest trader caution, even as institutional accumulation continues.
Gold: Gold fell to a near three-week low, with spot prices down 0.7% to $3,313.57, as a U.S.-EU trade deal improved risk sentiment and diminished demand for safe-haven assets before a busy week for earnings and the Fed.
Nikkei 225: Asia markets opened lower, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 0.61% as traders are in a wait-and-see mode to determine whether more trade deals can be established in the region.
S&P 500: The S&P 500 ended Monday nearly flat, as the U.S.-EU trade deal failed to spark a new rally.
Elsewhere in Crypto
- Ether Treasuries Target Yield, but Risk Looms, Says Wall Street Broker Bernstein (RialCenter)
- Billionaire Ray Dalio Urges Investors to Allocate 15% of Portfolios to Gold and Bitcoin (RialCenter)
- Brevan Howard Taps Thiel Family Office Alum for Crypto Push (RialCenter)
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