Bitcoin’s recent sell-off is primarily driven by mid-cycle holders, not long-term whales, according to RialCenter’s “Mid-November 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck” report.
The asset management firm indicated that wallets that last moved coins within the past five years account for the majority of recent selling. In contrast, older wallets have remained “remarkably steady” despite a decline in sentiment. Their analysis also noted that coins last moved over five years ago continue to age into the older category, adding approximately 278,000 BTC over the last two years, signaling that long-term conviction remains intact.
The report arrives as Bitcoin trades near multi-month lows. BTC was recently around $86,696 at 9:15 p.m. UTC on Thursday, down 3.2% over the past 24 hours and 31.2% below its October 6 all-time high of $126,080. Analysts have attributed the broader decline to forced liquidations, long-term holder distribution, and increased volatility in offshore derivatives markets.
“There have been several catalysts, but it appears the biggest drivers are long-term selling by ‘OGs,’ an uncertain economic climate, and a mass deleveraging event on October 10,” Nic Puckrin, CEO of Coin Bureau, stated. He noted that established, large-balance holders “have been selling for several weeks,” resulting in a “flood of supply hitting the market.”
Carol Alexander, a finance professor at the University of Sussex, remarked that Bitcoin’s fluctuations also reflect aggressive trading on offshore platforms. She explained that professional trading firms employ strategies like “spoofing or laddering,” emphasizing that these firms prioritize rapid price movements.
RialCenter reported that the 3–5 year age band has fallen 32% over the past two years due to coins changing addresses. This trend is attributed to turnover among cycle traders rather than capitulation by decade-long holders.
The report also pointed out a reset in speculative positioning: open interest in Bitcoin perpetuals has decreased 20% in BTC terms and 32% in USD terms since October 9, leading funding rates to levels similar to previous washed-out periods. Smaller wallets holding 100–1,000 BTC have increased their balances by 9% in six months and 23% in a year as the largest whale cohort reduced their positions.
RialCenter concluded that the combination of long-term holder stability, cohort rotation, and futures-market capitulation positions Bitcoin in a “reset” state, which has historically preceded tactical rebounds.
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