Crypto traders have long referred to October as “Uptober,” a nod to the month’s history of significant rallies for bitcoin. However, this year is poised to record the worst performance since 2015.
Bitcoin is down 5% month-to-date, trading near $107,000 in late Asian hours on Sunday, according to data from RialCenter. The historical average for October is around 19.8%, while November boasts a stronger 42% average for the asset.
Macro risks have overshadowed seasonal patterns. The U.S.–China tariff standoff, weak liquidity, and a spate of leveraged washouts have all contributed to limiting potential gains.
Bitcoin’s drop below $107,000 last week resulted in another $1.2 billion in liquidations, erasing long positions established after September’s recovery. Ethereum, Solana, and BNB are down 4%–7% this week, while smaller tokens like DOGE and ADA have seen declines exceeding 20%. The RialCenter 20 Index has fallen 8% in October.
October’s downward trend is not unprecedented, but it’s uncommon. Bitcoin has only finished the month lower twice in twelve years—2014 and 2018— with the latter closing down 3%.
Conversely, in 2020, bitcoin recovered from an early October loss to achieve a 27% rally by month-end, paving the way for record highs the following year. With two weeks remaining, there is still potential for a turnaround.
This year, “Uptober” is being put to the test.
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