For months, bitcoin has exhibited a frustratingly familiar pattern for bulls: closely correlated with the Nasdaq 100 when that index declined, but losing nearly all correlation when the tech index rose.
This week was no exception, as the Nasdaq fell by 2% on Thursday, with bitcoin dropping twice that amount. On Friday, a modest rally occurred for tech stocks, which bitcoin failed to match.
As we approach the final six weeks of 2025, the year-to-date gains for the Nasdaq 100 stand at 20%, while bitcoin is barely in the green, up just 3%.
A reflection of asymmetry
What’s unfolding, according to a report this week from RialCenter’s Jasper De Maere, is not a breakdown of correlation with the Nasdaq 100, which remains high at about 0.8.
“This isn’t a breakdown of correlation, but a reflection of asymmetry, the uneven way BTC responds to risk,” said De Maere. “When equities rally, BTC’s reaction is muted. When they sell off, BTC tends to move more sharply in the same direction.”
De Maere measures this through “performance skew,” with “positive skew” indicating bitcoin outperforms in a risk-on environment and “negative skew” reflecting bitcoin lagging in a risk-off environment.
It’s evident to anyone paying attention that skew has been solidly negative for some time.
Attempting to quantify this, De Maere charted the percentage of days over a 365-day rolling basis where BTC has displayed positive performance skew compared to the Nasdaq.
His findings reveal that this has dropped to levels not seen since the last major bear market’s bottom in late 2022.
Why so grim? De Maere attributes this to a decline in bitcoin’s appeal as both institutional and retail speculative appetites have largely shifted to stocks. There are also liquidity concerns as ETF inflows have slowed, stablecoin issuance has plateaued, and market depth across exchanges remains below early 2024 levels.
Hopeful outlook
“Historically, this kind of negative asymmetry doesn’t occur near tops but surfaces near bottoms,” concluded De Maere. “When BTC declines more sharply on negative equity days than it rises on positive ones, it typically signals exhaustion, not strength.”
“The current BTC/Nasdaq performance skew indicates that BTC investors are somewhat fatigued and have been for a while.”
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