Zohran Mamdani’s victory over Andrew Cuomo to become New York City’s 111th mayor drew record voter turnout and $424 million in betting volume, leaving one trader nursing heavy losses after wagering against him.
One bettor by the handle ‘fuxfux007’ is down $969,169 after betting against Mamdani. The trader appears to be new, with only two bets: one against Mamdani, worth $973,757, and one for him, worth $42,973.
On the other side, the biggest winner of the night was a trader known as ‘debased’ who pocketed $188,487 betting on Mamdani.
Ultimately, the market accurately predicted the election’s outcome, aligning with the polls. Still, it wasn’t without controversy: a billionaire claimed prediction markets were being rigged with malicious orders to inflate Mamdani’s chances.
Those claims echo last year’s U.S. election debate, when mainstream outlets accused the market of manipulation after a French trader’s multimillion-dollar wagers inflated Donald Trump’s odds.
At the time, experts noted that attempts to rig prices were typically short-lived and self-correcting due to arbitrage and liquidity from professional firms quickly addressing bad pricing.
Traders took the same position on the eve of the New York election, with some pointing out that a bet on Mamdani in the days before polls opened was effectively a guaranteed bond with 5% interest.
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