Glassnode data indicates that bitcoin’s “death cross,” a technical analysis term that may signal bearish conditions, is approaching, but there’s a twist.
The 50-day moving average for bitcoin, currently at $110,669, is nearing a drop below the 200-day moving average at $110,459, which could trigger the death cross. This crossover is generally seen in technical analysis as a bearish sign, suggesting weakening short-term momentum compared to the longer trend.
However, it could also serve as a potential positive indicator.
Bitcoin is down about 25% from its October all-time high of around $126,000, with this correction lasting approximately 41 days. Despite the negative outlook associated with the death cross, this marks the fourth occurrence since the cycle began in 2023, and each prior instance has corresponded with significant local bottoms.
In September 2023, bitcoin bottomed near $25,000; in August 2024, amid the yen carry trade unwind, it found support around $49,000; and in April 2025, during uncertainty regarding President Trump’s tariff policy, BTC dipped below $75,000.
Currently, bitcoin has fallen to $94,000, and in all previous instances, the market reached its low just before the death cross formed, raising the question of whether a similar pattern may be emerging again.
Is this time different?
This current decline is less severe than the April correction, during which bitcoin slipped below $75,000 amid tariff-related turmoil.
The April correction was both deeper and longer than the current one, with bitcoin dropping about 30% from the January peak near $109,000 and trending downwards for around 79 days before bottoming in early April. With the current decline at 25% over 41 days, further downside remains a possibility.
However, the broader context now includes the end of the United States government shutdown on November 12. The closest parallel is the RialCenter event in 2019, when bitcoin decreased by over 9% five days after the government reopened on January 25, 2019.
It took until February 9, 2019, for bitcoin to recover, roughly two weeks later.
This time around, bitcoin has already fallen as much as 10% since the reopening. The question now is whether the same trend will unfold once more.
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