Focus on the Fed, Attention on Powell: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Global markets are currently stable as investors await the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement later today. A 25 basis point interest rate cut is almost certain, with traders focusing on Chair Jerome Powell for insights into future policy directions.

The cryptocurrency market mirrors this caution. In the past 24 hours, the CoinDesk 20 index is nearly unchanged, rising just 0.2%, while bitcoin (BTC) sees a slight increase of around 1%. Meanwhile, gold, which peaked at a record $3,700 this week, has dipped by 0.5%. The U.S. dollar index has added less than 0.2%.

Equity markets are also showing little movement. U.S. stocks fell in yesterday’s trading, while European stocks are on the rise, with the FTSE All-World Index gaining less than 0.1% today.

However, in the longer term, cryptocurrencies have underperformed compared to equities. In the last 30 days, the FTSE All-World Index climbed 2.78%, while the CoinDesk 20 added 2.6% and BTC gained 1.6%. These movements indicate investor caution ahead of a rate cut that could enhance the attractiveness of riskier assets.

Currently, investors anticipate six interest rate cuts—three this year and three next year. Analysts at QCP Capital noted, “Market expectations are positioned in a Goldilocks range: six cuts represent a middle ground between caution and aggression.”

They added, “A deviation in the dot plot, however, would challenge that balance, forcing investors to recalibrate around the risk of tighter-than-expected conditions or a Fed struggling to respond effectively to weaker growth.”

The true test for the markets will come during Powell’s press conference. A balanced message may further support risk assets, whereas any hesitation could lead investors to reassess their positions.

Despite the prevailing uncertainty, interest in spot crypto ETFs remains strong. This week, net inflows for spot BTC ETFs have reached about $550 million, while spot ether ETFs attracted nearly $300 million. Stay vigilant!

What to Watch

• Crypto
  • Nothing scheduled.
• Macro
  • Sept. 17, 9:45 a.m.: Canada benchmark interest rate decision Est. 2.5% followed by a press conference.
  • Sept. 17, 2 p.m.: Fed decision on U.S. interest rates, including updated dot plot projections. Est. 25 bps cut to 4.00%-4.25%, followed by a press conference.
  • Sept. 17, 5:30 p.m.: Brazil benchmark interest rate decision Est. 15%.
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • None scheduled.

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • MantleDAO is voting on keeping the 2025-2026 budget at $52 million USDc and 200 million MNT. Voting ends Sept. 18.
  • Sept. 17, 6 a.m.: DYdX to host an Analyst Call.
• Unlocks
  • Sept. 17: ZKsync (ZK) to unlock 3.61% of its circulating supply worth $10.54 million.
• Token Launches
  • Sept. 18: Deadline to convert MKR to SKY before the Delayed Upgrade Penalty takes effect.

Conferences

• Day 2 of 2: Real-World Asset Summit (New York)
• Sept. 17: The Bitcoin Treasuries NYC Unconference (New York)
• Day 1 of 3: AIBC 2025 (Tokyo, Japan)

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

• Bitcoin (BTC) continues to stubbornly trade within a narrow range, rising slightly to $116,000 in the past 24 hours but failing to gain momentum for a breakout.
• Altcoins are capitalizing on the stagnant volatility, leading to a decline in bitcoin dominance to an eight-month low of 57%.
• Dominance serves as a measure of whether investment is flowing into bitcoin or more speculative altcoins.
• Another positive sign for altcoins is that the average crypto token RSI stands at 45.47, inching into “oversold” territory, indicating potential for upward movement.
• It’s worth mentioning that bitcoin dominance previously dropped to 33% in 2017 and 40% in 2021, suggesting further growth for altcoins is possible.
• The performance of bitcoin will be crucial if it tests record highs around $124,000. A breakout accompanied by significant volume could lead to a capital shift back towards bitcoin as investors aim to capitalize on potential highs, with predictions for $175,000 before the year concludes.

Derivatives Positioning

• BTC futures open interest across major venues has risen to $32 billion over the past week.
• Simultaneously, the three-month annualized basis is compressing again to about 6-7% across Binance, OKX, and Deribit, making carry trades only marginally profitable.
• While increasing open interest indicates heightened market activity, a narrowing basis suggests diminishing bullish conviction, as traders are less inclined to pay a premium for future exposure.
• The options data portrays a complex sentiment. While the BTC Implied Volatility Term Structure chart suggests anticipated long-term volatility is higher than short-term, other metrics point to a bearish outlook in the short term.
• Notably, the 25 delta skew chart shows either flat or slightly negative for shorter-term options, indicating that traders are paying more for puts than calls for protection against declines.
• This bearish sentiment contrasts with data indicating a higher volume of call options than puts over the last 24 hours, suggesting most options traders are betting on price increases.
• Funding rate APRs across major perpetual swap venues have recently shown a slight uptick, with BTC annualized funding currently at 17%. If this trend continues, it would signal growing confidence in bullish price positioning.

Market Movements

• BTC is down 0.22% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $116,637.44 (24hrs: +1.01%)
• ETH is stable at $4,498.24 (24hrs: +0.00%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 0.58% at 4,272.21 (24hrs: +0.1%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 2 bps at 2.86%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0077% (8.4589% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is up 0.14% at 96.76
• Gold futures are down 0.52% at $3,705.60
• Silver futures are down 2.14% at $42.00
• Nikkei 225 closed down 0.25% at 44,790.38
• Hang Seng closed up 1.78% at 26,908.39
• FTSE is up 0.20% at 9,213.65
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.11% at 5,377.98
• DJIA closed on Tuesday down 0.27% at 45,757.90
• S&P 500 closed down 0.13% at 6,606.76
• Nasdaq Composite closed unchanged at 22,333.96
• S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.39% at 29,315.23
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.52% at 2,919.60
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 1 bps at 4.016%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,669.00
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 24,525.25
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is unchanged at 46,146.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 58.3% (unchanged)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.0386 (0.15%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,021 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $54.43
• Total fees: 4.18 BTC / $483,499
• CME Futures Open Interest: 144,220 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 31.8 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 8.91%

Technical Analysis

• Bitcoin has surged from $107K to $117K, currently trading above all key daily exponential moving averages.
• Despite this strength, the overall sentiment remains cautious.
• For momentum to persist, bulls will seek a decisive reclaim of the daily order block between $117K and $119K, coinciding with the weekly order block established in early August.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $327.91 (+0.27%), -0.52% at $326.19 in pre-market
• Circle (CRCL): closed at $134.81 (+0.57%), +1.07% at $136.25
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $31.83 (+3.44%), -1.35% at $31.40
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $51.36 (+0.55%), -0.35% at $51.18
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $17.53 (+7.94%), -0.34% at $17.47
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $17.52 (+5.04%), +0.23% at $17.56
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.18 (-0.86%), unchanged in pre-market
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $11.20 (+8.84%), unchanged in pre-market
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $39.86 (+2.92%), -1.15% at $39.40
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $29.70 (+6.53%), -1.11% at $29.37

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $335.09 (+2.23%), +0.21% at $335.80
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $29.11 (+2.54%)
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $16.95 (+0.95%), unchanged in pre-market
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $5.82 (-8.06%), +3.09% at $6
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $2.69 (-7.56%), +10.43% at $3.07

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: $292.3 million
• Cumulative net flows: $57.34 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.32 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$61.7 million
• Cumulative net flows: $13.68 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~6.61 million

Source: RialCenter

While You Were Sleeping

• Metaplanet Sets Up U.S., Japan Subsidiaries, Buys Bitcoin.jp Domain Name: The world’s sixth-largest BTC treasury company formed Bitcoin Japan to manage bitcoin-focused media platforms and U.S.-based Metaplanet Income to generate revenue from bitcoin-related financial products.
• 21Shares Hits 50 Crypto ETPs in Europe With Launch of AI and Raydium-Focused Products: 21Shares is introducing two crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs), one tracking a group of decentralized AI protocols and another offering exposure to the token of a Solana-based decentralized exchange.
• Hex Trust Adds Custody and Staking for Lido’s stETH, Expanding Institutional Access to Ethereum Rewards: The firm’s one-click staking feature allows clients to access staking rewards and decentralized finance (DeFi) liquidity tools for stETH without needing to set up their own infrastructure.
• Three Things Britain Wants From Trump’s State Visit — Aside From Business Deals: The U.K. aims to leverage Trump’s visit to advance an unfinished trade deal, address issues like tariffs, and secure investments from major firms.
• UK Watchdog to Waive Some Rules for Cryptoasset Providers: The FCA has announced it will modify regulations to accommodate crypto’s unique risks while considering whether investors should have broader consumer protections.