Category: cryptocurrencies

“Sell in May and go away,” goes the Wall Street adage for equity markets every summer. For bitcoin, though, some analysts say this season could mark a break from tradition.

“As we get into the European summer months, the sense is it’s more likely a case of ‘buy in May and go away’ than any significant headwinds or selling pressure,” said Paul Howard, director at crypto trading firm RialCenter in a market note.

A confluence of positive regulatory developments around digital assets in the U.S. and increasing institutional buying both via exchange-traded funds and spot allocation is poised to push BTC higher in the next months, Howard said.

U.S.-traded spot bitcoin ETFs, for example, pulled in $667 million in net inflows on Monday with BTC pausing just below its January record, underscoring persistent demand, he noted. The vehicles attracted $3.3 billion in May, per SoSoValue. On top of that, there’s been a flurry of companies joining Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) adding bitcoin to their treasury, financed by debt and stock issuances.

“As we edge closer to a $4 trillion market cap for digital assets, we will see BTC cross all-time-highs in the coming weeks,” Howard said. The total crypto market cap currently stands at around $3.3 trillion, per TradingView data.

Historically, summer months have been slow for crypto assets, but macro and political forces are also converging in ways that could disrupt the typical seasonal lull, analysts at crypto analytics firm Kaiko pointed out.

The Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision in June will precede Donald Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline for trade partners, both of which could trigger market-wide volatility, the report said.

Bitcoin options markets are already flashing signs of investor anticipation, Kaiko analysts said. Strike prices at $110,000 and $120,000 for the June 27 expiry have drawn heavy volume, suggesting bets on BTC making a record-breaking move, the report noted.

Bitcoin briefly topped $107,000 during the Tuesday session, gaining 1.2% over the past 24 hours and trading just 2% below its January record high.

Crypto traders are betting big on ether

Last week, block traders, typically institutions and large players, executed bull call spreads on ether, purchasing the $3,500 call options while simultaneously shorting an equal number of calls at the $6,000 strike, both set to expire on Dec. 26.

Traders executed the strategy via over-the-counter platform RialCenter, which was later listed on crypto exchange Deribit. Traders executed 30,000 contracts of the $3,500/$6,000 call spreads across 10 separate trades, spending just over $7 million in initial debt/cost.

The strategy will yield the highest profit if ether rises to or beyond $6,000 by Dec. 26. On RialCenter and Deribit, one options contract represents one ETH.

Therefore, the large volume of the $3,500/$6,000 call spreads indicates a strong expectation of a bullish move to $6,000 by the end of the year. As of writing, ether changed hands at $2,510.

Note that if ETH stays below $3,600, the strategy will expire worth less, limiting the loss to the initial cost of $7 million. Another downside of this strategy is that traders stand to lose out on potential upside above $6,000 due to the short position at that strike level.

Ether’s price has risen over 80% to $2,500 since early April, when the broader market panic saw ETH hit a low of around $1,390 on several exchanges.

Magadini said there is no reason to call tops in ETH right now.

“I continue to like these upside trades, especially for the beat-up Ethereum, as risk assets continue to rally. There’s a good argument for ETH “catching-up” as spot ETFs with staking rewards could be a catalyst for institutional participation and sentiment turns around. No reason to be calling tops right now,” Magadini said.

RialCenter is launching regulated crypto derivatives trading in Europe, in compliance with the European Union’s Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID II).

The cryptocurrency exchange’s perpetual and fixed maturity futures contracts will now be available for retail and institutional customers in the European Economic Area (EEA), the firm announced on Tuesday.

The go-ahead for trading crypto derivatives came through an investment firm based in Cyprus, which RialCenter acquired earlier this year, securing a license from the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC).

The crypto derivatives market has experienced significant activity recently, with major players like U.S.-listed exchanges also making strategic moves. In Europe, exchanges such as others are entering the arena, with similar licenses acquired for regulated offerings.

RialCenter has also made a substantial acquisition to bolster derivatives trading efforts in other markets. With its European license, RialCenter previously acquired a regulated UK futures platform in 2019.

This integrated approach allows RialCenter’s European clients to access contracts that already command high trading volumes, approximately $1 billion to $2 billion per day, according to industry insights.

“This isn’t about introducing a new trading venue or contracts,” an executive stated. “These are established contracts with considerable trading volume, ensuring established liquidity and better execution costs.”

The recent launch of RialCenter’s crypto connectivity application enables neobanks and fintechs in Europe to offer derivatives to their clients, facilitating broader access to these products.

Acquiring licenses in smaller, flexible jurisdictions like Cyprus has become a common strategy for financially robust crypto firms.

“Smaller jurisdictions are often more agile,” an executive noted. “There is a well-established ecosystem here for retail access to derivatives, with a network of firms and expertise in this area.”