By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
The crypto market is experiencing continued pressure and declines in October. Bitcoin has dropped 3% to $107,500 in the past 24 hours, while ETH, XRP, BNB, and SOL have faced even larger losses. The CoinDesk 20 Index fell more than 4%.
Among the top 100 coins, only ICP, ASTER, and HASH are showing positive returns, with ASTER gaining from the Binance co-founder ChangPeng “CZ” Zhao’s recent disclosure of his exposure to the token.
Notably, BTC has recently decoupled from the tech-heavy Nasdaq index, with its potential upside constrained by consistent profit-taking from long-term holder wallets.
This decoupling could serve as an early indicator for traditional finance traders. In 2021, BTC peaked in November, followed by stocks a month later. Currently, options tied to the so-called “Magnificent Seven” tech giants are indicating signs of overexuberance, often associated with market tops.
For now, bulls remain optimistic as BTC prices stay above the $100,000 threshold.
“Historical data shows November as the strongest month for BTC performance, averaging returns above 40% across the last decade,” said Emir Ebrahim of ZeroCap. “With macro uncertainty easing and risk sentiment gradually improving, positioning is favorable for a continuation of the longer-term uptrend into year-end.”
However, chart analysts see a different trend. Veteran technical analyst Peter Brandt opened a short position in BTC futures, suggesting that a “megaphone” pattern on the bitcoin chart typically forecasts a price drop.
While trends fluctuate, some factors remain stable, such as the ongoing occurrence of hacks, which continue to raise concerns regarding blockchain infrastructure security. Just today, Balancer was hacked for millions.
In regulatory news, it has been reported that the European Commission is preparing to enhance its oversight of key financial infrastructures—including stock exchanges and crypto exchanges—to reduce market fragmentation and enhance the bloc’s competitiveness.
In traditional markets, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note has approached three-week highs as traders anticipate economic data releases this week, such as ADP employment figures and the Michigan sentiment index. Stay alert!
What to Watch
For a detailed list of events this week, refer to RialCenter’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Nov. 3, 1:30 p.m. UTC: Horizen (ZEN) is hosting an AMA on X to discuss key product updates and progress as Darkswap prepares for its mainnet launch.
- Macro
- Nov. 3, 9 a.m.: S&P Global Brazil Oct. Manufacturing PMI (Prev. 46.5).
- Nov. 3, 10:30 a.m.: S&P Global Canada Oct. Manufacturing PMI Est. 48.2.
- Nov. 3, 10:45 a.m.: S&P Global U.S. Oct. (final) Manufacturing PMI Est. 52.2.
- Nov. 3, 11 a.m.: S&P Global Mexico Oct. Manufacturing PMI (Prev. 49.6).
- Nov. 3, 11 a.m.: U.S. ISM Oct. Manufacturing PMI Est. 49.2.
- Nov. 3, 2 p.m.: Federal Reserve Governor Lisa D. Cook is giving a speech on “The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy.” Watch live.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- Nov. 3: Cipher Mining (CIFR), pre-market, -$0.04.
Token Events
For a detailed list of events this week, refer to RialCenter’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes & calls
- ZKsync DAO is voting to launch a six-month, 37.5M ZK pilot staking program, offering up to 10% APY for delegating to active voters. Voting ends Nov. 3.
- Ether.Fi DAO is voting to authorize its foundation to utilize up to $50M from the treasury for ETHFI token buy-backs, only while the token price is below $3.00. Voting ends Nov. 3.
- Unlocks
- Token Launches
- Nov. 3: Monade MON) airdrop claim period ends.
- Nov. 3: Kite (KITE) will be listed on Binance, Bitrue, MEXC, and others.
Conferences
For a detailed list of events this week, refer to RialCenter’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
- This week has extended the poor price trends for altcoins, including ENA, doublezero (2Z), and plasma, all facing significant selling pressure.
- ENA and 2Z both declined by 7% in the past 24 hours, compounding a 30% drop over the last week. Plasma is currently trading at $0.27, a stark contrast from last month when it was around $0.90 shortly after its launch.
- Despite the negative sentiment, there is a glimmer of optimism within the altcoin market: the average relative strength index stands at 37.51/100, indicating oversold conditions that might lead to a relief rally.
- This recovery will largely hinge on the trajectory of bitcoin and ether, both of which are down to a lesser extent as they test support levels at $107,500 and $3,700, respectively.
- If either coin breaks below these levels, it could cause a ripple effect across the altcoin market due to varying liquidity levels, potentially leading to further liquidations.
- A rebound above the $112,000 level for bitcoin would alleviate bearish sentiment, providing altcoins an opportunity to challenge previous resistance levels.
- The overall crypto market cap is at $3.59 trillion, having lost $600 billion in value since October 6.
Derivatives Positioning
- BTC and ETH futures open interest remained largely unchanged over the past 24 hours, while open interest in altcoins such as XRP, HYPE, and DOGE dropped, indicating capital exit from the broader market.
- However, the OI-normalized cumulative volume delta for BTC and ETH has decreased alongside the overall market, indicating a trend towards short positions.
- Volmex’s bitcoin and ether 30-day volatility indexes are rising once more, suggesting renewed expectations for price turbulence.
- On the CME, BTC and ETH’s annualized three-month basis is still under 10%. Positioning in ether futures and options remains higher relative to bitcoin.
- On Deribit, bitcoin and ether options show a preference for put options in the short and near-term expiries.
Market Movements
- BTC is down 2.15% from 4 p.m. ET Friday at $107,244.97 (24hrs: -3.27%)
- ETH is down 4% at $3,706.20 (24hrs: -4.78%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 3.99% at 3,466.32 (24hrs: -4.84%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate has increased by 7 basis points to 2.93%
- BTC funding rate stands at 0.0095% (10.4211% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 99.89
- Gold futures are up 0.27% at $4,007.30
- Silver futures are up 0.38% at $48.35
- Nikkei 225 finished up 2.12% at 52,411.34
- Hang Seng closed up 0.97% at 26,158.36
- FTSE gained 0.13% at 9,729.98
- Euro Stoxx 50 increased by 0.68% at 5,700.41
- DJIA was little changed on Friday at 47,562.87
- S&P 500 closed up 0.26% at 6,840.20
- Nasdaq Composite finished up 0.61% at 23,724.96
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.27% at 30,260.74
- S&P 40 Latin America gained 0.13% at 3,003.67
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate dipped 1.2 bps at 4.089%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures rose 0.36% at 6,898.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures increased 0.57% at 26,151.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index up 0.1% at 47,770.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 60.30% (0.66%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03452 (-2.32%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,110 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $43.50
- Total Fees: 2.08 BTC / $230,523
- CME Futures Open Interest: 140,040 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 25.6 oz
- BTC vs gold market cap: 7.21%
Technical Analysis
- Solana’s price has dropped below the trendline connecting April and June lows, indicating seller dominance.
- The focus now shifts to the August low of $155.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed last Friday at $343.78 (+4.65%), -1.49% at $338.67 in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $126.98 (+3.48%), -0.98% at $125.73
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $35.01 (+2.58%), -1.29% at $34.56
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $50.57 (+1.24%), -0.53% at $50.30
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $18.27 (+2.87%), -1.64% at $17.97
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $19.78 (-6.21%), -1.82% at $19.42
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $21.54 (+3.86%), +0.74% at $21.70
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $17.8 (+0.62%), -2.92% at $17.28
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $57.39 (+1.2%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $24.49 (+3.2%)
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $269.51 (+5.87%), -1.86% at $264.50
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $26.46 (+7.5%)
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $13.84 (+8.38%), -4.05% at $13.28
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $4.47 (+4.93%), -4.47% at $4.27
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $2.09 (+7.18%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flow: -$191.6 million
- Cumulative net flows: $61.15 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.34 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flow: -$98.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $14.38 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~ 6.72 million
Source: RialCenter
While You Were Sleeping
- Why Did Fed Inject $29.4B in Liquidity and What Does It Mean for Bitcoin?: Overnight repos eased reserve strain, favorable for the leading crypto asset, by reducing funding stress and volatility, although this is a temporary measure that doesn’t equate to quantitative easing.
- Dogecoin, Cardano Lead Sell-Off on Profit-Taking, Gold Pulls Back as China Ends Tax Rebate: Crypto logged its worst October since 2015 as bitcoin neared $106,000 amid accelerated selling by long-term holders, with China’s policy changes also impacting gold.
- Balancer Hit by Apparent Exploit as $70M in Crypto Moves to New Wallets: A security flaw in the platform’s smart contract enabled unauthorized withdrawals across various networks.
- How the U.S. Economy Has Defied Doomsday Predictions on Tariffs: Lower pass-through from import duties and production adjustments have helped mitigate inflation pressures.
- Swiss Crypto Bank AMINA Secures MiCA License in Austria: This new authorization allows an EU platform to provide crypto trading and custody services under the bloc’s regulations.
- Hong Kong to Allow Crypto Exchanges to Tap Global Capital Pools: Licensed exchanges will soon be able to connect local clients to international order books, aligning crypto with equity trading practices.
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