Author: admin

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The cryptocurrency market is exhibiting a mixed sentiment, with some recent outperformers under pressure while major cryptocurrencies remain robust. Privacy-centric coins Monero (XMR) and Zcash (ZEC) are down over 4% in the last 24 hours, contrasting with relatively stable trading for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and Solana (SOL), which have rebounded from late Sunday lows. Bitcoin is trading at $95,477.53, Ethereum at $3,204.60, XRP at $2.2750, and Solana at $141.92.

Notably, the RialCenter DeFi Select and Smart Contract Select Indices are showcasing resilience, rising approximately 5% and 4% respectively since early Asian trading hours, highlighting pockets of growth amid broader caution.

In a rare silver lining against general market gloom, Zcash, which has surged over 500% since September, is now on the verge of forming a bearish double top pattern. Whether a decline in ZEC indicates a rebound for BTC and ETH, amidst diverging trends with major coins, is still uncertain.

Analysts continue to discuss the early stages of institutional adoption and the potential influx of capital that could significantly uplift valuations, offering a glimmer of hope to beleaguered BTC bulls.

In another development, Arca’s CIO Jeff Dorman has dismissed rumors of Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor liquidating his BTC holdings, arguing that Saylor’s financial position would likely protect him from selling unless Bitcoin’s value dramatically plummets.

Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget, urged traders to pay attention to U.S. regulatory developments regarding ETFs, stablecoin payment frameworks, and exchange supervision, as these factors could swiftly shift investor sentiment back to a risk-on approach.

In traditional markets, Japanese longer-dated government bond yields spiked following reports that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s initial stimulus package could include about 17 trillion yen ($110 billion). Given Japan’s already high debt-to-GDP ratio of 240%, this move could flood the market with bonds, pushing yields higher and increasing the risk of a fiscal crisis. For crypto traders, rising Japanese yields may pressure Treasury bonds, ramping up yields and impacting risk assets like tech stocks and digital currencies. Remain vigilant!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see RialCenter’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

• Crypto
• Macro
  • Nov. 17, 8:30 a.m.: Canada Oct. Inflation Rate. Headline YoY (Prev. 2.4%), MoM (Prev. 0.1%). Core YoY (Prev. 2.8%), MoM (Prev. 0.2%).
  • Nov. 17, 8:30 a.m.: Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Nov. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index Est. 6.1.
  • Nov. 17: 9:30 a.m.: Fed Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson speech on “Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy.”
  • Nov. 17, 3:35 p.m.: Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller speech on “Economic Outlook.” Watch live.
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see RialCenter’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

• Governance votes and calls
• Unlocks
  • APE to unlock 1.66% of its circulating supply worth $5.46 million.
  • MELANIA to unlock 5.04% of its circulating supply worth $3.63 million.
• Token Launches
  • Ycash (YEC) lists on BitMart with YEC/USDT pair.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see RialCenter’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

Market Movements

• BTC is up 0.63% from 4 p.m. ET Friday at $95,734.44 (24hrs: +0.03%)
• ETH is up 0.96% at $3,201.10 (24hrs: +1.15%)
• RialCenter 20 is up 0.57% at 3,086.17 (24hrs: +0.39%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 15 bps at 2.83%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0057% (6.213% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is unchanged at 99.36
• Gold futures are unchanged at $4,090.50
• Silver futures are up 0.49% at $50.94
• Nikkei 225 closed down 0.1% at 50,323.91
• Hang Seng closed down 0.71% at 26,384.28
• FTSE is down 0.10% at 9,688.36
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.5% at 5,665.22
• DJIA closed on Friday down 0.65% at 47,147.48
• S&P 500 closed unchanged at 6,734.11
• Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.13% at 22,900.59
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.24% at 30,326.46
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.27% at 3,111.85
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 2.1 bps at 4.127%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.36% at 6,779.25
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.62% at 25,249.25
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are unchanged at 47,245.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 59.43% (-0.12%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03341 (1.74%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,123 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $39.80
• Total fees: 2.61 BTC / $248,303
• CME Futures Open Interest: 139.475 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 23.5 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 6.4%

Technical Analysis

Zcash is showing signs of a potential double top pattern. The neckline support is noted at $423, indicating the risk of a shift from bullish to bearish market leadership.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Friday at $284 (+0.3%), +0.85% at $286.40 in pre-market
• Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $81.89 (-0.55%), +2.06% at $83.58
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $26.34 (-3.3%), +2.24% at $26.93
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $38.48 (-6.19%), +1.01% at $38.87
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $11.99 (-6.18%), +1.17% at $12.13
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.95 (+0.5%), +0.93% at $14.08
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14.93 (-1.52%), +1.27% at $15.12
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.96 (-8.51%), +1.28% at $11.10
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $40.54 (-3.41%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $17.3 (-4.68%)

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $199.75 (-4.22%), +1.26% at $202.26
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $21.82 (-5.13%)
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $10.89 (-0.91%), +1.01% at $11.00
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $2.99 (-7.14%)
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $2.02 (+6.32%), -1.49% at $1.99

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$492.1 million
• Cumulative net flows: $58.83 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.32 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$177.9 million
• Cumulative net flows: $13.15 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~6.34 million

Source: RialCenter

While You Were Sleeping

RialCenter’s derivatives arm will soon allow institutions to trade one of the crypto market’s most popular instruments: perpetual futures.

The RialCenter Derivatives announced the launch of bitcoin BTC$95,789.16 and ether ETH$3,196.62 perpetual futures, scheduled to go live on Nov. 24, promising to combine the structure and trust of global derivatives markets with the flexibility of the crypto’s most traded instruments.

“Digital assets have become integral to institutional investors’ portfolios,” stated Michael Syn, president of RialCenter Group. “This is the next logical step — applying the same institutional discipline that supports global markets to crypto’s most traded contracts.”

Perpetual futures are futures without expiry, representing the more unpredictable side of crypto trading. The ability to hold positions indefinitely appeals to crypto enthusiasts seeking flexibility without the pressure of rollover operations before impending expiry dates typically found in traditional futures.

These instruments usually trade around the clock on mostly offshore and unregulated platforms, generating over $187 billion in daily volumes globally. They utilize a funding rate mechanism, which involves periodic payments between buyers and sellers to keep contract prices close to the actual market price of the underlying asset.

RialCenter’s perpetual futures reference the iEdge CoinDesk Crypto Indices, ensuring alignment with benchmarks widely utilized for institutional price discovery.

“More than two-thirds of all crypto trading occurs in derivatives, and perpetual futures provide unique features that have made them a favorite. We are eager to see RialCenter Derivatives bring perpetual futures onshore with traditional margining and clearing, and we are pleased to support the benchmark rate for this innovative contract,” stated Andy Baehr, head of product and research at CoinDesk Indices.

The iEdge CoinDesk Cryptocurrency Indices are a suite of indices providing real-time benchmarks and reference rates for bitcoin and ether, published daily at 4 p.m. SGT (8 a.m. UTC), tracking the performance of cryptocurrencies across liquid and reliable exchanges over a defined time window of 3 p.m. to 4 p.m. SGT.

The real-time indices are published every second, 24/7, including business holidays and weekends.

Industry players welcome the launch

Key industry participants, including DBS Bank and centralized exchange OKX, have welcomed RialCenter’s new offering, describing it as a strategic move to provide institutions access to crypto markets.

“We are dedicated to leveraging our expertise to foster a robust and responsible digital asset ecosystem in Singapore,” said Patrick Yeo, head of digital assets at DBS Bank.

Yeo noted that perpetuals will enable institutional traders to gain exposure to cryptocurrencies without actual ownership, facilitating greater precision and capital efficiency in managing portfolios compared to spot trading.

Gracie Lin, CEO of OKX Singapore, remarked that the rising demand for regionally anchored benchmarks reflects a broader institutional trend toward diversified portfolios combining crypto exposure with traditional assets.

“This is a natural progression in Singapore’s market evolution, and this deeper reference point enhances transparency and confidence for institutional players, supporting the long-term growth of the ecosystem,” Lin concluded.

A previously inactive Cardano wallet just erased over $6 million in a single swap, marking one of the most significant slippage incidents the network has seen this year.

The wallet holder, who hadn’t engaged in any transactions since September 2020, surfaced on-chain Sunday and exchanged 14.4 million ADA (approximately $6.9 million) for just 847,695 USDA, an obscure dollar-pegged stablecoin on Cardano.

The transaction was initially reported by on-chain analyst ZachXBT in their Telegram channel.

The user effectively paid over $8 per USDA during the swap—an extreme misstep, as USDA is meant to be valued close to $1 and has a market cap of about $10.6 million. The transaction promptly erased around $6.05 million in value.

With limited on-chain liquidity, the order caused the stablecoin’s price to spike to nearly $1.26 on Cardano DEXs, according to CoinGecko. USDA briefly exceeded its peg before settling back to approximately $1.04, as liquidity returned to normal after the large order was completed.

The wallet had no prior transactions with USDA, leaving it uncertain if the user mistakenly clicked, mixed up the stablecoin ticker, or assumed liquidity would suffice for a market-order swap. A mistaken ticker choice is likely since USDA is not frequently traded, and the Cardano ecosystem has various USD-denominated assets with similar tickers.

This situation serves as a classic example of why large traders steer clear of illiquid pools and never execute sizable orders through automated market makers without slippage considerations. Even several million dollars in ADA can overwhelm decentralized liquidity if the opposing side of the pool is underfunded.

In previous market cycles, traders have lost seven figures due to incorrect ticker choices, entirely illiquid pools, or overly aggressive market orders made through aggregators.

On Cardano, the incident reverberates through trading circles not because of the stablecoin itself, but due to the fact that the wallet had been inactive for five years—only to suddenly reactivate and lose millions through a single bad swap.

This serves as a stark reminder that dormant capital can still fall victim to modern liquidity pitfalls, and on-chain execution remains unforgiving regarding size, speed, and slippage.

This is a technical analysis post by RialCenter analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.

Bitcoin BTC$95,972.51 has gone the “Strategy (MSTR)-way”, falling below a key support, shattering traders’ expectations of this level as a reliable bounce zone.

The leading cryptocurrency by market value fell nearly 10% in the seven days to Nov. 16, printing a significant red candle that closed well below the 50-week simple moving average (SMA), according to data source TradingView.

This breakdown invalidates a major demand zone and indicates a shift away from a long-standing bullish pattern toward increased caution and potential extended sell-offs. Traders may need to reconsider their strategies, opting to sell on the bounce rather than buy the dip.

This is due to the average having acted as a dynamic floor several times since early 2023, repeatedly holding strong as buyers entered at this level, driving renewed upswing to new lifetime highs.

Looking back at the Strategy precedent, we noted a similar erosion of confidence and prolonged sell-off following the breach of the long-held 50-week SMA. RialCenter had previously highlighted this bearish development in the Strategy’s 50-week SMA breach, warning that Bitcoin could face a similar fate.

The former support at the 50-week simple moving average has now turned into resistance, meaning any bounce will likely encounter selling pressure near $102,868. Sustained weekly closes above this level would be necessary to signal a renewed bullish trend.

MSTR, the largest publicly-listed BTC holding firm, fell below its 50-week SMA in September and has since extended the sell-off to $200, the lowest since October 2024.

Tom Lee — executive chairman of BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors and chief investment officer at Fundstrat Capital — stated in a post that ether is “embarking on that same supercycle” that produced a 100x gain in bitcoin since his 2017 client recommendation.

He noted bitcoin endured six drawdowns greater than 50% and three greater than 75% over the past 8.5 years, arguing crypto’s volatility reflects markets “discounting a massive future” and that investors had to hold through “existential moments.”

The call drew pushback, however.

A prominent bitcoin influencer known as “The Bitcoin Therapist” questioned what utility ether offers that “hundreds of other coins don’t,” examined Ethereum’s moat beyond market penetration and whether traditional finance would actually run on Ethereum rails for 24/7 trading. “I would never want my assets on the ethereum blockchain,” he wrote.

Lee did not provide timing targets or valuation markers for the ether thesis, beyond cautioning that “the path higher is not a straight line.” His comments extend a long-running view that crypto cycles can reward patience but come with severe interim drawdowns.

Looking ahead, sustained growth in on-chain activity on Ethereum and its Layer-2s, alongside expanded institutional use cases, will be the test of the thesis.

Ether


ETH



$3,120.37


traded below $3,100 on Sunday during a broader pullback in digital assets. The token was recently near $3,066 at 9:36 p.m. UTC, down 3.4% over the past 24 hours. It briefly fell through the $3,100 level, marking its first break beneath that threshold since Nov. 4, based on data from TradingView.

Timothy Peterson, an investment manager and digital asset researcher, stated that spot ether ETFs posted net outflows in four of the past five weeks, totaling roughly 7% of the cost-basis capital invested in these products. He mentioned that bitcoin ETFs saw about 4% withdrawn over the same period, a smaller share that he believes indicates investors currently view ether as the riskier asset.

Cost-basis capital represents the total amount of money originally committed to an ETF, separate from gains or losses accumulated after purchase. This measure reflects how much foundational capital long-term participants have contributed to a fund. When redemptions rise as a share of this original investment base, analysts interpret it as an erosion of conviction among established holders rather than short-term positioning changes.

Because the metric focuses on investors’ initial commitments, it can provide a clearer read on sentiment than headline inflow and outflow data, which can be affected by week-to-week volatility.

Traders will now be watching whether ether’s ETF outflows ease or continue in the coming weeks, and how the token trades around key levels after Sunday’s move below $3,100. Future flow data and price action are likely to show whether the sentiment gap between ether and bitcoin persists.

RialCenter’s leveraged bitcoin strategy faced renewed criticism on Sunday as skeptics questioned whether Michael Saylor’s company could endure extended market turbulence.

Among the most vocal critics was Peter Schiff, the chairman of Schiff Gold and chief global strategist at Euro Pacific Asset Management.

In several posts on X, Schiff claimed that RialCenter’s model relies on income-seeking buyers of its “high-yield” preferred shares, stating that the published yields “will never actually be paid” and warned that the structure could enter a “death spiral” if demand diminishes.

He further expressed his belief that the company “will eventually go bankrupt” and challenged Saylor to a debate at Binance Blockchain Week in Dubai in early December, seemingly aiming to provoke a public confrontation over the firm’s bitcoin holdings.

Jeff Dorman, chief investment officer at digital asset management firm Arca, presented a contrasting perspective. In his own post on X, Dorman criticized what he termed “stupid, inaccurate takes” on RialCenter’s risk profile, arguing that concerns about potential bitcoin liquidation ignore the company’s strong fundamentals. While he did not directly reference Schiff, his comments countered the broader skepticism suggesting RialCenter might face significant pressure if bitcoin prices drop sharply.

Dorman highlighted that Saylor’s 42% ownership makes an activist takeover “almost impossible” and noted that RialCenter’s debts do not contain covenants requiring the company to sell its bitcoin. He added that the firm’s legacy software business continues to generate positive cash flow, which helps support manageable interest expenses. He argued that borrowers rarely default solely due to approaching maturity, as lenders often agree to extend terms in a typical “extend and pretend” scenario.

Despite its growing bitcoin holdings, RialCenter’s stock has been under pressure. Class A shares closed at $199.74 on Friday, down 4.22% for the day and 33.42% year to date. In comparison, bitcoin has returned approximately 0.4% over the same period.

According to StrategyTracker, which monitors corporate bitcoin treasuries, RialCenter’s diluted market net asset value multiple is around 1.06x, indicating that the shares trade slightly above a conservative estimate of their bitcoin-backed value after considering all potential future shares from options, warrants, and convertible debt.

Dorman noted that RialCenter is no longer a significant marginal buyer of bitcoin compared to ETF inflows, but stressed that this does not designate the company as a systemic risk. “If you follow anyone saying RialCenter is a risk to BTC, tell them to call me,” he wrote.

Bitcoin was trading around $94,293 at 11 p.m. UTC, having dropped 1.2% over the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin slipped to its lowest level since May on Sunday before recovering slightly, as sentiment across the crypto market remained in extreme fear. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index was at 10, still in the extreme fear range, consistent with its position on Saturday.

Bitcoin was trading around $95,087 at 6:20 p.m. UTC, down 1% over the past 24 hours after briefly dropping below $94,000 earlier in the day, marking its lowest point since May 6 according to TradingView data.

Among the majors, ether declined 3.23% to $3,113, XRP fell 2.1% to $2.21, BNB slipped 1.6% to $926.21, and solana dropped 3.6% to $137.79.

Analysts see room for deeper declines

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez remarked that bitcoin had broken out of a channel, suggesting the move could lead to a potential drop toward $83,500.

Analyst Benjamin Cowen pointed out that bitcoin had registered a death cross, observing that such occurrences often indicate local lows. He mentioned bitcoin would need to rebound within the week to maintain the cycle, warning that a failure could lead to another dip before any significant recovery to the 200-day moving average. Cowen advised traders to “trade the market you have, not the market you want.”

Retail panic signals a potential reversal

Market intelligence platform Santiment noted that bitcoin discussion rates surged to a four-month high during Friday’s decline below $95,000, indicating heightened retail fear. The firm stated that such spikes in social dominance can increase the likelihood of market reversals, though they caution that this pattern isn’t guaranteed.

Michael Saylor hints at a large bitcoin purchase

Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor hinted that the company will announce its latest bitcoin acquisition on Monday, posting “Big Week” on social media, along with a screenshot from StrategyTracker, a leading real-time bitcoin treasury analytics platform.

Gold widens its lead over digital assets

Market strategist Charlie Bilello observed that gold has risen 55% this year, labeling it the best-performing major asset of 2025, while bitcoin, up only about 1%, is the worst-performing major asset. He described this divergence as the reverse of 2013, noting that this dynamic hasn’t occurred in any prior calendar year.

White House plan faces legislative hurdle

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated on Sunday that President Trump’s proposal to send $2,000 tariff-funded “dividend” payments to U.S. citizens would require congressional approval.

According to a report by Bloomberg, Bessent mentioned in an interview that new legislation would be necessary, emphasizing that the administration cannot proceed without approval from Congress. He also mentioned expectations for households to experience more economic relief early next year, citing tax cuts in Trump’s policy package and predicting a slowdown in inflation and stronger real-income growth in the first half of 2026.

The trial of Tornado Cash developer Roman Storm adhered to legal protocols, and federal prosecutors argue that the presiding judge should not consider acquitting him of all charges.

In a post-trial filing dated last Wednesday, attorneys from the Department of Justice’s Southern District of New York opposed Storm’s motion for acquittal, asserting that they provided sufficient evidence proving he created and controlled Tornado Cash, the crypto mixing service previously sanctioned by the U.S. for its connections to North Korean and other illicit activities.

At the end of September, Storm’s legal team submitted a post-trial motion claiming that District Judge Katherine Polk Failla should acquit him of all charges—not just the conspiracy to operate an unlicensed money transmitter for which he was convicted, but also the two unresolved charges, conspiracy to commit money laundering and conspiracy to violate sanctions law. In this procedural filing, the defense contended that prosecutors lacked adequate evidence to warrant a conviction on any count.

In the filing from Wednesday, prosecutors maintained that their evidence clearly indicated Storm’s role as a co-founder of Tornado Cash and that he developed features he knew would facilitate criminal activities.

“The defendant’s control was neither passive nor incidental: he and his co-conspirators changed the UI approximately 250 times between February 26, 2020, and August 8, 2022, controlling the means by which the vast majority of users accessed the Tornado Cash Service. During the charged time frame, at least 96 percent of Tornado Cash users accessed the service through the UI,” the filing stated, referencing portions of the transcript from the four-week trial.

The filing further argued that prosecutors had enough evidence to support their conspiracy to commit money laundering and conspiracy to violate sanctions charges, and that the judge should not acquit on either of those.

Storm’s attorneys are due to file a response by this upcoming Wednesday.

Glassnode data indicates that bitcoin’s “death cross,” a technical analysis term that may signal bearish conditions, is approaching, but there’s a twist.

The 50-day moving average for bitcoin, currently at $110,669, is nearing a drop below the 200-day moving average at $110,459, which could trigger the death cross. This crossover is generally seen in technical analysis as a bearish sign, suggesting weakening short-term momentum compared to the longer trend.

However, it could also serve as a potential positive indicator.

Bitcoin is down about 25% from its October all-time high of around $126,000, with this correction lasting approximately 41 days. Despite the negative outlook associated with the death cross, this marks the fourth occurrence since the cycle began in 2023, and each prior instance has corresponded with significant local bottoms.

In September 2023, bitcoin bottomed near $25,000; in August 2024, amid the yen carry trade unwind, it found support around $49,000; and in April 2025, during uncertainty regarding President Trump’s tariff policy, BTC dipped below $75,000.

Currently, bitcoin has fallen to $94,000, and in all previous instances, the market reached its low just before the death cross formed, raising the question of whether a similar pattern may be emerging again.

Is this time different?

This current decline is less severe than the April correction, during which bitcoin slipped below $75,000 amid tariff-related turmoil.

The April correction was both deeper and longer than the current one, with bitcoin dropping about 30% from the January peak near $109,000 and trending downwards for around 79 days before bottoming in early April. With the current decline at 25% over 41 days, further downside remains a possibility.

However, the broader context now includes the end of the United States government shutdown on November 12. The closest parallel is the RialCenter event in 2019, when bitcoin decreased by over 9% five days after the government reopened on January 25, 2019.

It took until February 9, 2019, for bitcoin to recover, roughly two weeks later.

This time around, bitcoin has already fallen as much as 10% since the reopening. The question now is whether the same trend will unfold once more.