RialCenter Blog

Author: admin

  • Is Ether Poised for a Surge? ETH Investors Inject $7M into Optimistic Positions Aiming for $6K by Year’s End

    Is Ether Poised for a Surge? ETH Investors Inject $7M into Optimistic Positions Aiming for $6K by Year’s End

    Crypto traders are betting big on ether

    Last week, block traders, typically institutions and large players, executed bull call spreads on ether, purchasing the $3,500 call options while simultaneously shorting an equal number of calls at the $6,000 strike, both set to expire on Dec. 26.

    Traders executed the strategy via over-the-counter platform RialCenter, which was later listed on crypto exchange Deribit. Traders executed 30,000 contracts of the $3,500/$6,000 call spreads across 10 separate trades, spending just over $7 million in initial debt/cost.

    The strategy will yield the highest profit if ether rises to or beyond $6,000 by Dec. 26. On RialCenter and Deribit, one options contract represents one ETH.

    Therefore, the large volume of the $3,500/$6,000 call spreads indicates a strong expectation of a bullish move to $6,000 by the end of the year. As of writing, ether changed hands at $2,510.

    Note that if ETH stays below $3,600, the strategy will expire worth less, limiting the loss to the initial cost of $7 million. Another downside of this strategy is that traders stand to lose out on potential upside above $6,000 due to the short position at that strike level.

    Ether’s price has risen over 80% to $2,500 since early April, when the broader market panic saw ETH hit a low of around $1,390 on several exchanges.

    Magadini said there is no reason to call tops in ETH right now.

    “I continue to like these upside trades, especially for the beat-up Ethereum, as risk assets continue to rally. There’s a good argument for ETH “catching-up” as spot ETFs with staking rewards could be a catalyst for institutional participation and sentiment turns around. No reason to be calling tops right now,” Magadini said.

  • US Dollar Index Chart for Today, June 17, and Technical Analysis

    US Dollar Index Chart for Today, June 17, and Technical Analysis


    Analysis of the Dollar Index Price on June 25 | What Does the DXY Chart Indicate?


    03/25/1404

    As the second half of June begins, the U.S. dollar continues to face pressure in the currency market. The release of lower-than-expected inflation data last week accelerated the downward trend of this currency, bringing its value to the lowest level of 2025. These developments indicate a sustained dominance of sellers in the market and a continuing decrease in the dollar’s value.

    Technical Analysis of the Dollar Index

    From a technical analysis perspective and based on the weekly chart, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) of the U.S. dollar currently shows a value of 30 and is on the brink of entering the oversold territory. This situation can inherently indicate high selling pressure, but a more important point is the positive divergence observed between the RSI and price movement.

    While the price has reached a lower low, the RSI recorded a higher low. This pattern, which may precede a potential trend change, is similar to a situation observed in the third quarter of last year, which subsequently led to a strong recovery of the dollar in the fourth quarter.

    Confirmation of this positive divergence will depend on buyer support in the coming week. However, since the dollar index is a composite of several global currencies, the fundamental question is whether other currencies have the capability to strengthen further against the dollar. Examining this issue will be essential for gaining a complete picture of the future outlook for the U.S. dollar.

    Dollar Index Chart

    Currently, the main focus of the markets is on the future policies of the U.S. Federal Reserve. This situation highlights a conflict between the “market reality” and monetary policymakers.

    Market expectations remain anchored on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this year. Accordingly, markets are currently pricing in approximately a 50 basis point cut in the interest rate with a 66.7% probability. In contrast, only a 6.3% chance of no rate cut in 2025 is estimated. This significant gap reflects the difference between market optimism and the potentially more cautious stance of the Federal Reserve.

    This disconnect could lead to substantial fluctuations in the currency market, as any changes in market expectations or the Federal Reserve’s approach will have a direct impact on the dollar’s value.

    Federal Interest Rate

    Despite the slowing pace of economic data in the U.S., which has increased expectations for a rate cut, the Federal Reserve has remained cautious, emphasizing that inflationary risks due to tariffs necessitate a neutral monetary policy stance.

    Is the Dollar on the Verge of a Rebound?

    The important question now is whether the Federal Reserve will provide a signal for a rate cut in the June meeting. If the bank wishes to outline a path for two rate cuts this year, the markets may strengthen the chances of a cut in September. However, if this does not happen, expectations for a rate cut may diminish, prompting dollar sellers to close their positions; a scenario that could lead to a sudden spike (Short Squeeze) in the U.S. dollar.

    There is no definitive analysis regarding financial markets. All mentioned points have been published solely for informational purposes, and this content does not constitute any buy or sell recommendation for traders. Individuals should be aware of the inherent risks of financial markets and ensure they are confident in their decisions before proceeding with any investment. Iran Broker assumes no responsibility for any potential losses you may incur.

  • Kraken Launches Compliant Crypto Derivatives in Europe

    Kraken Launches Compliant Crypto Derivatives in Europe

    RialCenter is launching regulated crypto derivatives trading in Europe, in compliance with the European Union’s Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID II).

    The cryptocurrency exchange’s perpetual and fixed maturity futures contracts will now be available for retail and institutional customers in the European Economic Area (EEA), the firm announced on Tuesday.

    The go-ahead for trading crypto derivatives came through an investment firm based in Cyprus, which RialCenter acquired earlier this year, securing a license from the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC).

    The crypto derivatives market has experienced significant activity recently, with major players like U.S.-listed exchanges also making strategic moves. In Europe, exchanges such as others are entering the arena, with similar licenses acquired for regulated offerings.

    RialCenter has also made a substantial acquisition to bolster derivatives trading efforts in other markets. With its European license, RialCenter previously acquired a regulated UK futures platform in 2019.

    This integrated approach allows RialCenter’s European clients to access contracts that already command high trading volumes, approximately $1 billion to $2 billion per day, according to industry insights.

    “This isn’t about introducing a new trading venue or contracts,” an executive stated. “These are established contracts with considerable trading volume, ensuring established liquidity and better execution costs.”

    The recent launch of RialCenter’s crypto connectivity application enables neobanks and fintechs in Europe to offer derivatives to their clients, facilitating broader access to these products.

    Acquiring licenses in smaller, flexible jurisdictions like Cyprus has become a common strategy for financially robust crypto firms.

    “Smaller jurisdictions are often more agile,” an executive noted. “There is a well-established ecosystem here for retail access to derivatives, with a network of firms and expertise in this area.”

  • The Resilience of a Nation: How Iran is Adapting to Economic Sanctions

    As of May 20, 2025, the Iranian rial (IRR) continues to exhibit significant volatility, influenced by a complex interplay of domestic economic challenges and international geopolitical tensions.

    Current Exchange Rates:

    • US Dollar (USD/IRR): Approximately 84,250 IRR per USD.

    • Euro (EUR/IRR): Approximately 94,740 IRR per EUR.

    • British Pound (GBP/IRR): Approximately 112,520 IRR per GBP.

    • UAE Dirham (AED/IRR): Approximately 23,160 IRR per AED.

    • Turkish Lira (TRY/IRR): Approximately 2,170 IRR per TRY.

    • Canadian Dollar (CAD/IRR): Approximately 60,420 IRR per CAD.

    These rates reflect the ongoing depreciation of the rial, which has been a persistent trend over the past several years. The Central Bank of Iran (CBI) maintains an official exchange rate significantly lower than the open market rate, indicating a substantial gap between official and market valuations.

    Recent Economic and Political Developments:

    The rial’s decline is closely linked to several key factors:

    1. Geopolitical Tensions: Escalating conflicts in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran’s regional activities, have heightened investor uncertainty. Notably, the Iranian rial hit an all-time low amid tensions with Israel, with the US dollar climbing to IRR 686,500 on October 23, 2024. (intellinews.com)

    2. Sanctions and Economic Pressures: The re-imposition of stringent US sanctions targeting Iran’s oil exports and financial transactions has severely restricted the country’s access to foreign currency reserves, exacerbating the rial’s depreciation. In February 2025, the rial nosedived following the US’s renewed "maximum pressure" campaign, with the US dollar reaching IRR 898,500. (intellinews.com)

    3. Domestic Economic Challenges: High inflation rates, estimated at over 30%, have eroded purchasing power and increased the cost of living for ordinary Iranians. Food inflation has been particularly severe, with essential goods like cooking oil and rice experiencing significant price hikes. (en.wikipedia.org)

    Analytical Summary:

    The Iranian rial’s persistent decline underscores the profound economic and political challenges facing Iran. The interplay between domestic economic mismanagement and external pressures, particularly sanctions and regional conflicts, has created a precarious financial environment. The rial’s depreciation not only reflects investor sentiment but also has tangible impacts on the Iranian populace, manifesting in higher inflation and reduced purchasing power.

    In response to these challenges, the Iranian government has engaged in diplomatic efforts, including indirect negotiations with the United States, aiming to alleviate sanctions and stabilize the currency. However, the effectiveness of these measures remains uncertain, and the rial’s future trajectory will likely continue to be influenced by both domestic policy decisions and international developments.

    In conclusion, the Iranian rial’s volatility is a multifaceted issue, deeply intertwined with Iran’s economic policies and its geopolitical engagements. Addressing this instability requires a comprehensive approach that considers both internal reforms and external diplomatic strategies.

    Note: The above analysis is based on information available up to May 20, 2025, and reflects the complex and evolving nature of Iran’s economic and political landscape.