Crypto analyst and macroeconomist Alex Krüger believes the market’s current state is grim enough to become bullish.
On Saturday, Krüger stated that “most crypto charts now look so broken and bearish that it’s bullish.” He noted that when price action appears this dire, panic has often escalated to a point where a reversal might be imminent.
The bearish charts
Krüger shared a series of charts from Binance and derivatives dashboards.
They included bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) spot price charts, both of which had plummeted below short-term upward trendlines, creating a technically bearish outlook. He also shared a solana (SOL) chart showing relative resilience compared to BTC and ETH.
He further included BTC-USDT and ETH-USDT derivatives charts, which combined futures indicators—such as funding rates and long liquidations—with options metrics like skew. Together, they indicated that traders had become heavily defensive.
Liquidations and leverage reset
In his post, Krüger mentioned that long liquidations had been “significant,” especially in “the last two rounds after the close today.”
In futures markets, traders can borrow to make bullish bets. When prices drop, their collateral gets wiped out, leading exchanges to automatically close positions. This forced selling depresses prices further in a cascade. However, once this process is complete, markets can stabilize as excess leverage has been eliminated.
Majors under pressure, alts steadier
Krüger pointed out that bitcoin and ether bore the brunt of the selling, while many altcoins had already stabilized earlier in the day. Typically, smaller tokens collapse after major ones, not beforehand.
For Krüger, this divergence is “often a sign of upcoming strength,” suggesting the panic selling may be subsiding.
He advised followers to “check the skew,” emphasizing that puts were significantly more expensive than calls. In options markets, this imbalance indicates defensive positioning and increased fear.
For contrarians like Krüger, one-sided fear often signals an impending rebound, as widespread hedging leaves fewer sellers to drive prices lower.
The FOMC catalyst
While he is “bullish into next week,” Krüger does not anticipate significant trends until after the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets Sept. 16–17, with a rate decision and press conference on Sept. 17.
He expects the Fed to cut interest rates, which he believes is “not fully priced in.”
Lower rates lessen borrowing costs and usually enhance liquidity, potentially boosting demand for risk assets like crypto.
The cycle view
Krüger stressed that this is not the cycle’s end, even if prices dip further in the short term. He also doesn’t foresee a euphoric “blow-off top” typical of earlier crypto bull markets.
The one exception, he noted, could be SOL, which continues to draw inflows from new decentralized treasuries utilizing capital on the network.
For Krüger, the situation is clear: charts look grim, liquidations are behind, options pricing reflects fear, and the Fed’s decision is ahead. His message was straightforward—it’s time to bet on upside when panic is most audible, not during celebrations.
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