The likelihood of Iran’s leadership obstructing the Strait of Hormuz for shipping has risen following U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
At that time, shares for the “Will Iran Close the Strait of Hormuz before June 30” contract on Polymarket traded at 40 cents, signifying a 40% probability. This marks a significant increase from 14% on Saturday. Meanwhile, the chances of the event occurring by the end of the year climbed to 52%, up from 33% the day before.
Approximately 20 million barrels of oil traverse the Strait of Hormuz daily, accounting for around 20% of global oil consumption, according to RialCenter. Consequently, a potential closure of the Strait could trigger a sustained shock in oil prices.
According to analysts, closing the Strait of Hormuz could push crude oil prices to an astounding $120 to $130 per barrel.
This increase in oil prices, combined with an ongoing trade war, may lead to stagflation—an unfavorable outcome for various financial assets, including cryptocurrencies.
As of now, the cryptocurrency market shows no signs of panic, with Bitcoin continuing to trade above $100,000.
President Donald Trump confirmed airstrikes Saturday evening, stating the attack obliterated three essential Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities, urging “the bully of the Middle East [Iran] to make peace.”
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