By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise) Bitcoin (BTC) is hovering just under $105,000, having dropped 1.4% in the past 24 hours as crypto markets grappled with the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict alongside regulatory developments in the U.S. Tensions are escalating in the Middle East following President Donald Trump’s call for Iran’s “unconditional surrender," labeling its leader as an “easy target.” However, corporate demand for Bitcoin remains strong, particularly with Senate approval of U.S. stablecoin legislation being viewed positively by the industry.
Trump’s remarks have increased the perceived likelihood of U.S. involvement in the conflict to 62% on prediction market Polymarket, up from around 50% a day earlier, with a 73% chance of military action against Iran before August. Analysts at crypto hedge fund QCP Capital noted that despite rising tensions in the region, Bitcoin has not shown signs of panic, supported by ongoing institutional buying.
This accumulation includes significant corporate treasuries—Strategy has acquired over 10,000 BTC through its STRD preferred stock offering, while The Blockchain Group reported an addition of 182 BTC this week. Meanwhile, Fold has secured a $250 million facility for Bitcoin investments, and Mercury Fintech plans to raise $800 million for its Bitcoin treasury.
“Despite the initial shock, Bitcoin’s ability to maintain above the crucial psychological threshold of $100,000 suggests a market stabilization,” stated QCP analysts. They highlighted that the recent modest 3% pullback is minor compared to the more than 8% decline BTC faced last April amid similar tensions. The Deribit BTC Volatility Index (DVOL) is currently around 40.86, down from over 62 in early April.
The Senate’s passage of the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act marks a notable step for crypto legislation, signaling increased openness among U.S. lawmakers to formalize industry regulations. Markets perceived this development as a structural win.
Traders are focusing on today’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with expectations of rates remaining steady. The Iranian crypto exchange Nobitex was hacked by a group believed to be linked to Israel shortly after this group targeted Bank Sepah. Any moves by Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz or U.S. intervention could lead to a significant sell-off of risk assets.
“It’s best to hold judgment until the U.S. markets open, where most price movements are expected,” noted Jake O., an OTC trader at Wintermute. Stay alert!
What to Watch
Crypto:
- June 18: IoTeX L1 v2.2.0 hard fork activates.
- June 18: Purpose Investments’ "Purpose XRP ETF" begins trading.
- June 20: BlackCoin activates SegWit on mainnet.
Macro:
- June 18, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. unemployment insurance data released.
- June 19, 3 p.m.: Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics releases Q1 employment data.
Token Events:
- June 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock a percentage of its circulating supply.
- July 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock a segment of its supply.
Market Movements:
- BTC: $104,736.41, down 1.19%.
- ETH: $2,526.50, down 1.34%.
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 64.90%
- Hashrate: 886 EH/s
Technical Analysis
Chainlink’s LINK token has dipped below the Ichimoku cloud, signaling renewed bearish momentum.
Crypto Equities
- Strategy (MSTR): -1.85%
- Coinbase Global (COIN): -2.95%
- Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): -4.22%
Source: RialCenter
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