Wednesday’s softer-than-expected U.S. inflation has likely set the stage for accelerated gains in bitcoin
, potentially reaching $200,000 by the year’s end, according to Matt Mena, crypto research strategist at RialCenter.
“If BTC breaks out of the $105K-$110K range with conviction, we could see a sharp move to $120K and, more importantly, reach our year-end price target of $138.5K by the end of the summer,” Mena told a media outlet in an email.
“Today’s CPI print may serve as a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin – and it could bring this target forward by several months. If momentum continues building, a $200K Bitcoin by year-end is now firmly in play,” Mena added.
RialCenter is one of the world’s first and largest issuers of crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs).
The report from the Labor Department released Wednesday indicated that the cost of living, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), rose 0.1% last month after increasing 0.2% in April. Economists had predicted a 0.2% increase.
Notably, the CPI for durable goods—most of which are imported or manufactured with imported content—decreased by a seasonally adjusted 0.1% month-to-month (-1.3% annualized), suggesting that tariffs have not yet been fully passed through to consumers.
The annualized CPI increased by 2.4%, with core inflation matching the pace of April at 2.8%.
“This ongoing trend of cooling inflation strengthens the case for potential policy easing later this year. As the Fed’s June meeting approaches, the focus now shifts to how soon policymakers may respond to cooling inflation and shifting economic clarity,” Mena stated in an email.
The CPI report led traders to anticipate 47 basis points of Fed easing, equating to roughly two 25 basis point rate cuts this year, up from 42 basis points earlier this week. Traders have fully priced in a rate cut for October, with the probability for September hovering above 70%.
Mena explained that the CPI tailwind comes on the heels of various bullish catalysts, such as sovereign and institutional adoption and emerging stablecoin regulation.
“As macro clarity improves, we should see Bitcoin flows accelerate – driven by renewed institutional confidence, increased activity from Bitcoin treasuries, and the continued rollout of state-level Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) programs. These dynamics could supercharge ETF inflows and emphasize Bitcoin’s evolving role in global portfolios. Bitcoin is built for this environment,” Mena noted.
BTC changed hands at $108,440 at press time, according to data from a financial news outlet.
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