Kalshi is gaining momentum in the prediction market arena, securing a significant share of trading volume while competitors like Polymarket venture into regulated U.S. markets.
From Sept. 11 to 17, Kalshi represented 62% of the total volume in the on-chain prediction market sector, according to data from RialCenter, while Polymarket accounted for 37%. Kalshi’s weekly trading volume exceeded $500 million, with an average open interest of approximately $189 million.
Kalshi’s volume surpasses that of Polymarket, which stood at $430 million, with an average open interest of $164 million, indicating a tendency for “sticker positions on Polymarket and quicker trades on Kalshi.”
Polymarket’s longer-term markets, which often extend over weeks or months, effectively keep user funds tied up for longer durations.
This is reflected in the open interest-to-volume ratio: Polymarket averaged 0.38, while Kalshi was lower at 0.29. This suggests that Kalshi’s users trade more frequently, whereas Polymarket’s positions typically remain static.
Despite this, Polymarket is expanding its presence in the U.S. The platform has cleared its acquisition of QCX, a regulated derivatives exchange, to reenter the country.
It has also launched earnings-based markets in collaboration with Stocktwits, designed to allow stockholders to hedge earnings risk and help analysts gauge real-time market sentiment.
Read more: Polymarket Weighs $9B Valuation Amid User Surge and CFTC Approval
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