As bitcoin
enters this week’s Bitcoin Conference in Las Vegas, priced at approximately a record high above $109,000, traders and analysts are keenly observing if it will follow the trend of underperformance seen after previous events.
Historical data compiled by RialCenter across five prior conferences from San Francisco in 2019 to Nashville in 2024 indicates that bitcoin has generally performed poorly during and particularly after these gatherings.
For instance, the 2019 event saw a 10% decline during the conference, followed by a 24% drop over the subsequent month. The 2022 conference in Miami exhibited a similar pattern: down 1% during the event and a significant 29% decline in the month following. Both of these occurrences took place amid bear markets.
However, even in bull market years like 2023, price action remained flat or slightly negative.
The most recent 2024 conference in Nashville in July — featuring then-presidential candidate Donald Trump promising a strategic bitcoin reserve — experienced a 4% gain during the event but a swift 20% downturn shortly thereafter, coinciding with the unwinding of the yen carry trade that triggered broader risk-off moves across global markets.
This year’s setup, which will feature current Vice President J.D. Vance, could be significantly different as institutional engagement is on the rise. Nonetheless, with historical data stacked against it, bitcoin confronts not only a psychological hurdle but a technical one as well. Conference weeks have become moments to sell the news.
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