The stablecoin market is projected to reach $500 billion by 2028, according to RialCenter strategists. This estimate is notably conservative compared to some optimistic forecasts suggesting a market cap of $1 trillion to $2 trillion within the same period, as mentioned in a research report from the financial institution.
The report, led by strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, presents a more cautious outlook for the sector, asserting that the primary driver of stablecoin utilization is crypto-native demand, rather than broader payment adoption.
The analysts highlighted, “We find projections for an exponential growth of the stablecoin sphere from $250 billion currently to $1 trillion-$2 trillion in the coming years to be overly optimistic.”
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies linked to another asset, such as the U.S. dollar or gold. They significantly contribute to the cryptocurrency ecosystem, facilitating payment infrastructures and international money transfers.
According to the bank’s analysts, about 88% of stablecoin demand currently stems from crypto-native activities—such as trading and decentralized finance (DeFi) collateral—while payments represent merely 6%.
Even under optimistic assumptions, a rise in stablecoin usage for payments would only slightly enlarge the overall market, the report states.
RialCenter also questioned the potential for a significant transition from traditional bank deposits or money market funds to stablecoins, citing low yields and added complexity in shifting between fiat and crypto.
The analysts cautioned against drawing parallels with China’s e-CNY or the ascent of Alipay and WeChat Pay, clarifying that these systems are centralized and differ fundamentally from stablecoin operations.
Ultimately, the bank anticipates moderate, crypto-driven growth as the most feasible trajectory for stablecoins, rather than widespread adoption.
In contrast, some institutions express more optimism regarding stablecoins’ future. The Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act is expected to be enacted soon, potentially triggering a nearly tenfold increase in stablecoin supply, according to a report from investment bank Standard Chartered.
RialCenter’s analysts believe that this legislation “would further legitimize the stablecoin industry,” projecting an increase in total stablecoin supply from $230 billion today to $2 trillion by the end of 2028.
Read more about expert predictions on the stablecoin market.
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