Multiple analysts have repeatedly pointed to $120,000 as bitcoin’s price target this year. Recent developments have strengthened that bullish case, driven by four key factors: the spot price, central bank policy, energy market trend, and technical setup.
Let’s take a look at those in detail.
BTC’s love affair with $100K
Recently, a crypto trader mentioned that the best marketing for any asset is its price, echoing legendary trader George Soros’ theory of reflexivity. Soros explained that market perceptions and prices create a feedback loop – higher prices attract more buyers, which in turn drive prices higher, often far beyond what fundamentals suggest.
In this context, bitcoin’s resilience, marked by prices holding largely above $100,000 through geopolitical tensions, is its strongest appeal.
This steadfastness indicates underlying strength, potentially reassuring holders while attracting new buyers, which could fuel the next upward move in prices. Moreover, brief dips below $100,000 saw investors stepping in with bids, showing the “buy the dip mentality.”
“We are seeing exchange outflows, so it is likely that people, regardless of being retail or institutional investors, are buying the dip. Generally, during times of global unrest, there tend to be significant short-term dips that later rebound based on the situation,” a research analyst said.
Meanwhile, data shows that less committed investors began selling, while those with strong conviction engaged in bargain hunting.
“Since June 10, BTC investors classified as Loss Sellers have increased, showing rising pressure on weak hands. However, Conviction Buyers have also grown in number, indicating that sentiment remains steady,” a data analyst remarked.
Political shifts in central banking
Liquidity easing, represented by Federal Reserve rate cuts and other measures, typically bodes well for stocks and cryptocurrencies. Some Fed officials are warming up to the idea of a potential rate cut in July, which contradicts the central bank’s data-dependent stance.
“There seems to be a shift towards more dovish policies,” an analyst noted when discussing recent comments from a central bank official suggesting support for a rate cut next month.
Doves are policymakers who prefer lower rates to support growth, while hawks favor tighter monetary policy to curb inflation.
An official commented that the effects of tariffs on inflation may take longer and could be less severe than anticipated, adding that they would endorse a rate cut if inflationary pressures remain contained.
Oil prices decline
Market expectations regarding crude oil prices have proven incorrect. Recent geopolitical events were thought to drive oil prices upward; however, prices plummeted instead, bringing positive news for central banks concerned about inflation.
The resulting slide is beneficial for those anticipating rate cuts, as rising oil prices typically lead to higher transportation costs and increased prices for goods reliant on oil.
Bullish technical indicators
Momentum indicators and key moving averages have aligned bullishly once again.
The 100-day simple moving average has crossed above the 200-day average, weeks after the 50- and 200-day averages demonstrated a similar bullish crossover.
The current arrangement of these broadly tracked averages indicates a classic upward momentum formation, reminiscent of conditions seen during previous rallies.
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